Category: Forecast Discussion

Weekly Outlook: Amazingly Cold And Wintry Pattern

November continues to grow increasingly colder than average with each passing day. The prolonged nature of the severe cold is astounding for early and mid November. Average low temperatures this…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/17/weekly-outlook-amazingly-cold-and-wintry-pattern/

Snow Total Catch Up And More On The Bitter Air Inbound…

Snowfall totals through this morning are as follows: Whitestown: 3″ Zionsville: 3″ Muncie: 3″ Bloomington: 2″ Martinsville: 3.2″ Castleton: 3″ Indianapolis: 2.5″ All in all, this first storm behaved as…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/17/snow-total-catch-up-and-more-on-the-bitter-air-inbound/

50/50 Split On Sunday Night Snow…

Quick-hitting Bullet Points:

  • Light snow Saturday night
  • Still questions around Sunday night snow potential
  • Even colder air invades early next week
  • Fun and games continue in the longer range

The afternoon model suite is in in it’s entirety and it leaves us with about as many questions as answers :-)…

Four of our more trusted short-term forecast models are split 50/50 on the outcome Sunday night.  In the snowy camp you have the NAM and European.  In the drier camp you have the GFS and GEM.  Past experience with this type event says the European and NAM solutions may have the better handle and we think the drier modeling will shift a touch northwest with time over the upcoming 24 hours.  The difference between camps would be a nice 2-3″ type snowfall for the Monday morning commute across central Indiana versus nothing more than a few flurries.  More as the details become clearer…

We still forecast light snow to overspread central Indiana Saturday evening and night.  While this won’t be a big deal, a dusting to 1″ of snow is a good bet across most of central Indiana, especially from the I-70 corridor and points north.  Roads may be slick in spots on your way to church Sunday morning.

One thing that’s a certainty is that another blast of arctic air will invade along with scattered snow showers early next week.  This push of bitter air will be even colder than this weeks.

In the longer term, plenty of wintry “fun and games” remain.  In fact, today’s 12z European has the look set to offer more meteorological headaches come late next week.  Ah, the season is only beginning… 🙂

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/14/5050-split-on-sunday-night-snow/

Mid November Or Mid January?!

Snow showers continue to track down the I-65 corridor this evening. Don’t be surprised of a quick dusting of snow for portions of Boone County over the next hour. Short…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/13/mid-november-or-mid-january/

Bitter Cold For November; Complicated Weekend…

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

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26/ 32

22/ 32

24/ 35

25/ 35

21/ 32

13/ 26

12/ 32 

Wintry Feel Is Here…Hard to believe it’s only the middle of November with such an extended stretch of cold air.  It’s not just the cold in terms of the absolutes, but the prolonged nature of the frigid early season wintry air that’s truly impressive.  In any event, Thursday will feature the threat of a few snow flurries as reinforcing cold air blows into town.  This will set the stage for a dry, but very cold close to the work week.

Complex Weekend…A complicated weather situation will unfold over the weekend that will provide at least two chances of accumulating snow across portions of the region.  Let’s sort through the details:

After a dry daytime Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will scoot east across the central Plains states towards the Ohio Valley region.  This will help spread an area of light snow across the state late Saturday night into the daytime Sunday.  Light is the key word here and for the most part accumulations with this first system should be around 1″.

The second (more questionable) piece to the potentially snowy puzzle arrives on the scene Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  A vigorous upper level disturbance will round the base of a trough across the southern Plains and help ignite surface low pressure across the southern Mississippi Valley region that will track northeast.

This evening’s computer models are at odds with one another in regards to how far north the deep moisture makes it.  If you take the more aggressive (snowier) solution, we’re looking at another round of accumulating snow Sunday PM.  However, it’s important to also note the colder and more suppressed modeling as well.  In fact, some data doesn’t even bring a flake of snow into the area Sunday evening.  Gut feeling here is that the snowier solution may be the better way to lean, but time will tell (it’s never a bad thing to be on the northwest flank of precipitation with a wintry event still several days out).

For now, we’ll go with more of a blend and suggest additional light snowfall Sunday night into Monday morning.  Note this is a low confidence forecast as of now and will require fine tuning as we move forward over the next day or two.

Bitter Air…Regardless of whether or not we see additional accumulating snow Sunday night, bitterly cold air will flow into the region to open the new work week.  Lower teens are in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday morning.  Brrrr…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast: 

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/12/3033/

More On The Impressively Cold/ Snowy Pattern…

The more and more I look into the mid and long range data, the more impressed I become with what’s ahead.  We’ve been hitting the drum since Halloween on the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/10/more-on-the-impressively-cold-snowy-pattern/

Enjoy Today; Arctic Front Coming

Our long advertised arctic cold front will slide in Tuesday evening. That said, try and let us worry about the cold, wintry details ahead and you enjoy today’s relatively mild…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/10/enjoy-today-arctic-front-coming/

Weekly Outlook: Heading Straight Into Winter

November is off to a cold start, but a byproduct of the unseasonably cold pattern is a relatively dry one, as well. Brisk southwest winds are blowing this morning and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/08/weekly-outlook-heading-straight-into-winter/

Friday Evening Video Brief

This evening’s video brief covers the chance of weekend rain and continues to focus on the arctic intrusion next week.

We're still eyeing an unseasonably cold push of air by the middle of next week. Temperatures will plunge so low that it'll feel more like late December than mid November.

We’re still eyeing an unseasonably cold push of air by the middle of next week. Temperatures will plunge so low that it’ll feel more like late December than mid November.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/07/friday-evening-video-brief/

Mid West Wintry Event Brewing?

First let me start off by saying we’re not trying to compare specifics with two storms in this post, but instead highlight a pattern in advance that’s similar to one…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/05/mid-west-wintry-event-brewing/

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