Category: Forecast Discussion

Jan 16

Friday Morning Thoughts…

I’m blessed to have family in town this weekend so posts will be a bit off schedule the next few days, but keep it tuned here as they will come!

What a remarkable January this is as temperatures are averaging more than 9 degrees (fahrenheit) below average AND COLDER than last January.  While I know snow lovers are wanting more snow (yours truly included), one has to sit back and really appreciate the pattern for what it is from a cold standpoint.  I would go as far as to argue this pattern is actually more impressive than last January as the cold has come in the face of what’s been a much less impressive snow pack (for the most part).

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

Despite a brief “relaxation” now, models suggest the cold comes on like gangbusters yet again to wrap up the month.  Given where we’ve been and what appears to lie ahead, it would seem as if this January will be even colder than last January- not only through the first half, but at month’s end.  It’ll be fascinating to watch unfold.

Speaking of snow, I still believe this is the type pattern that can “flip on a dime” in the snow department.  The sea surface temperature profile and analogs at least suggest we’re on the playing field for a stormy ride through the month of February and even into March this year.  Does it mean it has to be a snowy pattern?  No, but at this distance it’s at least nice knowing we’re on the field with a chance to win the game.

In the shorter term, a windy “mild up” will occur Saturday as highs reach the middle to upper 40s with a gusty southwest wind in play.  Winds will top 30-40 MPH so you’ll definitely want to “batten down the hatches” Saturday.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_7

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/16/friday-morning-thoughts/

Jan 15

Quiet Weather For Now….

Screen Shot 2015-01-15 at 8.07.55 AM

Moderation Continues; Windy Saturday…A weak frontal boundary will slip through the state this afternoon/ evening and could offer up a snow flurry.  Otherwise it’s a rather uneventful forecast until Saturday when we introduce a gusty southwesterly wind (up to 30 MPH).  The bright side of that southwesterly breeze will be that temperatures will reach the middle 40s.

The milder air will be very brief as a cold front moves through Saturday night and provides snow shower potential as early as Sunday morning.  We should remain dry for the better part of the first half of next week, but we’ll be keeping a close watch for a potential winter storm brewing the middle to latter portions of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Trace
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/15/quiet-weather-for-now/

Jan 14

Relatively Quiet Now, But It Won’t Last Long…

Enjoy our relatively quiet and briefly milder weather pattern as mid and long range guidance suggests we reload the cold with authority and associated wintry precipitation threats…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/14/relatively-quiet-now-but-it-wont-last-long/

Jan 12

Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

nsm_depth_2015011205_National

Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

nws_precip_indy_7

A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

hires_ref_indy_52

The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

gfs_ptype_slp_east_18

The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/looking-ahead/

Jan 11

Ice Storm Warning…

Freezing rain (initially may be mixed with sleet) overspreads central Indiana between 1p-3p. We advise to get any and all travel done prior to 1p and plan to stay in…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/11/ice-storm-warning/

Jan 09

Wintry Sandwich Sunday Evening-Monday; More Bitter Cold Follows.

Busy times continue in the good ole weather office as we get set to deal with yet another winter storm during the upcoming weekend.

First, we’ll deal with more below zero temperatures tonight and Saturday morning as overnight lows bottom out between 5 and 10 degrees below zero tonight area-wide.  Wind chill values, of course, will be even colder (-15 to -25).  Dangerous cold continues with considerable blowing and drifting in the open country.  Saturday will be the “calm before the storm” with unseasonably cold conditions continuing, but with lighter winds and sunshine.

Clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday and we’ll begin to introduce precipitation into your forecast as early as Sunday afternoon (not a bad day for two classic back-to-back playoff games if you ask me).  Here’s our best idea of what you can expect statewide after reviewing all guidance today:

011115event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some initial thinking would place the following numbers (a bit early to be too specific), and we caution this will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.

Snow accumulation of 2″-4″ across north-central Indiana, particularly just north of Indianapolis.  In the “mainly snow” zone, expect amounts of 3″-6″.  Ice storm criteria accumulation of freezing rain is possible (0.25″, or greater) across central Indiana, as well.  South of the city, early ideas suggest roughly 1″-2″ of snow and glaze potential closer to that potentially damaging 0.25″ amount.  Again, we state that these numbers are very early ideas and will have to be fine tuned.

Precipitation should initially overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon in the form of sleet and snow (more sleet south-central, more snow north-central) before transitioning to more of a sleet and freezing rain event.  Finally, we anticipate the wintry mixture of precipitation to end as snow before moving out Monday morning.  Timing and duration of precipitation types will obviously determine how much ice and snow a given location sees.

Another big item we want to be sure to mention is that yet ANOTHER push of bitter arctic air will invade behind this storm and set the stage for another dangerously cold period Tuesday into Wednesday (back below zero we go)!

Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast over the weekend!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/09/wintry-sandwich-sunday-evening-monday/

Jan 09

Catching Up On Where We’ve Been And What Lies Ahead…

January is off to a frigid start. After a mild December, January is certainly reminding folks that there’s a lot of winter in this pattern. Precipitation is running above normal…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/09/catching-up-on-where-weve-been-and-what-lies-ahead/

Jan 04

Monday Night-Tuesday Snow Event: First Call Map

15141614SnowfallForecast

I apologize for the lack of posts today.  My wife and I took time to get away for the weekend before the busy winter weather invades.  As a side note- it takes a special woman to put up with someone like me who has to check each and every model run through the day (and night).  I have an internal clock that causes me to wake up for the European run between 1a – 2a every night this time of year (pathetic, I know).  At any event, here are some of the quick-hitting bullet point highlights of what’s ahead into mid week:

  • Plowable Snow: Snow arrives into central IN by mid to late evening Monday and falls fast and furious for a few hours during the overnight.  Thinking here is that the majority of accumulating snow will fall after the evening rush Monday and before the morning rush Tuesday.  That said, it’ll be tough for snow removal companies and plows to keep up during the heart of the storm as snowfall rates will likely top 1″/hr during the overnight Monday.  Tuesday’s rush to and from work won’t be fun.  The snowfall map above is our best educated idea at this point, but we also think a localized band of 7″ – 8″ totals can’t be ruled out and we’ll use tomorrow to fine tune that band (early thinking is just north of the city).
  • Strong Winds: We’re still expecting wind and cold to become a huge story and concern Tuesday afternoon into mid week.  Northwest winds will become strong and gusty Tuesday and result in considerable blowing and drifting of snow (especially by afternoon).  Travel will likely remain difficult because of the combination of blowing, drifting, and the bitterly cold air.  Wind speeds will top 20-30 MPH Tuesday afternoon and night as the arctic front blows through.
  • Dangerous Cold: Temperatures will plummet Tuesday afternoon as the arctic air hits like a “wall.”  This will set the stage for dangerously cold air Tuesday night through Thursday, including below zero temperatures (5-10 below zero) and wind chill values that approach 30 degrees below zero.  Temperatures Wednesday will struggle to make it much above zero for the high (not a typo).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/04/monday-night-tuesday-snow-event-first-call-map/

Jan 03

Snow Showers Arrive Sunday; More Snow And Dangerous Cold Ahead…

Lots to discuss through the upcoming 7 days so please be sure to click the video and hear our latest thinking.  Have a great Saturday!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/03/snow-showers-arrive-sunday-more-snow-and-dangerous-cold-ahead/

Jan 03

Stretch Of Severe Winter Weather Next Week.

Just wanted to touch on a couple of bullet points for the upcoming week before a more extensive forecast update a bit later this afternoon.  A period of severe winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/03/stretch-of-severe-winter-weather-next-week/

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