Category: Forecast Discussion

Apr 17

Warm Now, But Cooler Times Loom…

Screen Shot 2015-04-17 at 7.28.41 AMHighlights:

  • Early morning dense fog
  • Warm and dry close to the week
  • Wet and stormy second half of the weekend
  • Much cooler next week
  • 7-Day model average precipitation totals range from 1″ to 1.5″, with locally heavier totals

SAT_EUS_IR4ENH_ANIThe infrared satellite this morning, courtesy of Weathertap.com, is showing a significant storm system dumping major snows along the CO Front Range.  Additionally, later today, this storm system will help spawn a severe weather outbreak across eastern CO, NE, and KS.

Locally, we have no weather worries after we rid ourselves of the dense fog currently in place across central Indiana.  Once the fog burns off it’s nothing but sunshine and warmth and an absolute ideal close to the work week and open to the weekend.  Highs today (image 1) will reach the lower to middle 70s and we forecast highs Saturday in the upper 70s (image 2), both courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_t2m_max_indy_5

hires_t2m_max_indy_12Things will begin to transition to stormy times for the second half of the weekend as a “piece” of that big Rocky Mountain storm system breaks away and helps develop a new surface low over the MS River Valley.  This low pressure system will ride into the Ohio Valley and provide widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

Here’s a look at the 2p forecast radar Sunday, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_ref_indy_61The Storm Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Sunday.

day3otlk_0730As we turn our attention to next week, unseasonably cool air will engulf a large portion of the east.  Reinforcing chilly air will push in later next week, after the first surge of chill arrives Monday night/ Tuesday.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/17/warm-now-but-cooler-times-loom/

Apr 14

Cooler Times Ahead…

April so far has run much warmer than normal across our region, and a large part of the country.    However, a rather significant shift in the pattern will take…

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Apr 13

Line Of Showers And T-storms Early This Afternoon…

A thin line of showers and thunderstorms will push through central Indiana around lunchtime through the early afternoon hours.  The HRRR (top) is much less aggressive than the high resolution…

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Apr 09

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

ECMF_phase_51m_small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

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The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/09/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/

Apr 08

Busy 48 Hours Ahead…

A very busy 48 hours lies ahead with multiple storm clusters that will traverse the region. Severe weather will be possible with each storm complex and torrential downpours may lead…

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Apr 06

Unseasonably Warm, But Stormy At Times…

We’ll enjoy a very warm pattern this week (how do middle 70s sound Wednesday and Thursday)?!    The warmth will come at a price, however, as periods of showers and…

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Apr 03

Friday Morning Thoughts…

1.) First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to our neighbors to our south this morning as a serious flood situation is underway.

Unfortunately, more rain is ahead today and will include our region across central Indiana.  Waves of rain and embedded thunder will continue into the evening.

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2.) A much colder air mass will arrive this afternoon and evening along with a gusty northwest wind.  Wind chills will fall into the 20s by evening.  Eventually we’ll bottom out in the upper 20s Saturday morning.

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3.) Easter weekend will feature beautiful weather across the area, thanks to high pressure.  Though it’ll be cold Saturday morning, lots of sunshine will warm us quickly.

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4.) Wet and stormy times return next week, including multiple days of heavy rain potential and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms.  In short, a very active week is on deck.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/03/friday-morning-thoughts-2/

Apr 02

Wet And Stormy At Times…

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of central Indiana under a Slight Risk of severe weather today, and included southwestern Indiana under an enhanced risk.    While some noisy…

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Mar 31

Wet, Stormy, And Warm…

Those are the words to sum up the mid to long range. While we’ll deal with a brief Easter weekend cool down, the overwhelming signals in the mid to long…

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Mar 30

Warmer And Stormy Look…

We’re shifting gears into more of a spring like weather pattern over the course of the next 4-6 weeks. Things appear to get rather active and warmer than average, as…

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