May 04
It’s been a very busy day and I apologize for the late post. Storms this evening reached severe limits north of the city. In particular, Boone County was hard hit,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/04/monday-evening-catch-up/
Apr 29
Highlights:
A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday. This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day. Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place. This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.
We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy. As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system. Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.
Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region. Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above. That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times. Stay tuned.
Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks. Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/29/cool-and-showery-thursday-full-blown-spring-warmth-ahead/
Apr 28
Highlights:
Wednesday will get off to a chilly start, but we’ll be several degrees warmer than recent mornings. We should see enough sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower to middle 60s before clouds increase and thicken by evening. This is in association with an upper level low that will track over the region Thursday. This UL will serve up scattered showers Thursday (0.10″ – 0.25″ rain potential in spots) and it’ll be another unseasonably cool day.
Brighter days are ahead as we progress into the weekend with increasing sunshine Friday and continuing Saturday.
Moisture will increase Sunday into Monday as our wind flow backs around to the southwest. This will pull increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley and we’ll watch for a couple of disturbances to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The big story next week will be a much warmer pattern.
After a dry Wednesday, forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows showers building into central IN Wednesday night and Thursday morning. It won’t rain the entire day Thursday, but scattered showers will dot the landscape at times. As mentioned above, rainfall totals will be light. It’ll be a cool day (mid to upper 50s for highs as shown below) with showers, clouds, and a gusty north wind in play.
Our air flow will back to the southwest and help transport a more humid brand of air into the region early next week. This warmer, moist air mass will likely be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/28/thursday-bump-in-the-road-en-route-to-a-warmer-regime/
Apr 27
Highlights:
After a cool open to the work week, the next couple of days will continue a similar theme. We’ll enjoy more sunshine Tuesday when compared to Monday afternoon and temperatures should be a degree or two warmer.
Attention will shift to a potent upper level area of low pressure dropping across the region in the mid week time period. This will do two things of note- provide reinforcing cool air and help create a scattered shower chance in the Wednesday-Thursday time period. (Scattered 0.10″ to 0.25″ rainfall amounts).
Weather conditions will begin to relax as we put a wrap on the work week. Expect increasing sunshine and a much warmer pattern.
Warmth and humidity will continue to build early next week and help add fuel to storm potential.
It’s a rather anomalous look to the 500mb (upper air pattern) charts for mid week, courtesy of Weatherbell.com. A potent upper level low will dive southeast across the region and help spawn a shower chance, along with provide a much cooler feel of things Wednesday night into Thursday. Surface low pressure will develop along the SE coast (in response to the UL energy diving southeast) that will provide a windy/ rainy end to the week across coastal regions down east.
Warmer days are ahead, and more humid days, as well. Our wind flow will back to the southwest late in the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will respond, but so will humidity levels. Throw in a little energy and you have the makings for stormy times to open up next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/27/warmer-days-coming-but-cool-continues-in-the-short-term/
Apr 26
As our attention shifts to May, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the upcoming month. Due to licensing issues, we’re not allowed to share all of the forecast models that we look at here with you, but did want to give you an idea of some of the data we’re looking at.
The month is likely to open up with an anomalous pattern in place, including one that will support a rather significant coastal storm along the SE coast. That said, as we progress a bit deeper into the month, guidance suggests a much warmer pattern awaits for those locally across the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Using a combination of model guidance, here’s an idea of what we’re projecting the upper air pattern to look like as we open the month and progress into the middle of the month.
As a whole, the majority of forecast data, including analogs of weak El Nino events of the past would imply a warmer than normal May is on the way. Note the warmer anomalies across the mid South and Ohio Valley region.
The CFSv2 also is in agreement with the warm idea for May. Areas where cooler air will be more likely? The SW and northern tier regions.
Precipitation for April has been running above normal across our region and across the southeast, as a whole. This is a good sign if you don’t like exceptionally hot and dry summers. Precipitation this time of year can set the tone for both as we move into the summer months ahead.
For the month of May, we anticipate near normal precipitation (right around 5″), but stress that precipitation isn’t always uniform this time of year as thunderstorms can dump locally heavier totals.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/26/warm-may-on-the-way/
Apr 22
Highlights:
Tonight’s water vapor loop, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, is showing drier air making it’s way into our region. This will set the stage for plentiful sunshine Thursday and Friday (well deserved, I might add :-)). Winds will also begin to diminish this evening. The combination of winds going calm and clearing skies will promote the chance of a frost and freeze across central IN tonight (and likely again tomorrow night) as reinforcing chilly air pours into the region. Those with ag. interests be sure to take note.
Attention then turns to the weekend and we’ll label it as “half-n-half” for now. A wet, chilly, and raw Saturday should give way to increasing sunshine Sunday. Early to mid next week will provide a new set of challenges and we’re leaning towards the wetter solutions yet again. Keep in mind the drier forecast model sets (GFS in particular) had to come around and play catch up to those leading the way Saturday (EC and GEM). Expect changes and stay tuned.
Forecast lows tonight, thanks to Weatherbell.com, are suggested to fall into the lower to middle 30s. Should the wind go calm then expect a few readings around 30 degrees. We’ll likely dip near these readings again Friday morning.
After a dry close to the work week, moisture increases late Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect a wet Saturday with early rainfall numbers projected in the 0.50″ to 1″ range.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/22/frosty-weather-turns-wet-saturday/
Apr 21
Highlights:
It’s been a chilly and WINDY open to the week. After a day of sunshine Tuesday, clouds thickened Tuesday evening and showers aren’t far behind. We forecast a band of light to moderate rain to move north to south during the overnight period- particularly between 1a and 5a. Unseasonably cool air will be the rule as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. A new storm system looks to deliver widespread rain Saturday. Factor in temperatures running well below average and you have the makings for a rather nasty Saturday (a far cry from last Saturday’s sunshine and 80 degree warmth).
A band of showers will move through central IN Wednesday morning and will be followed by another push of unseasonably cool air. Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows overnight rain moving through the region. Between one tenth and one quarter inch is a good bet.
High resolution forecast models suggest many dip to around freezing Thursday and Friday morning. Those with ag. interests, take note.
Wet weather returns Saturday. The European and Canadian forecast models led the way with this system and now the GFS (shown above) is playing catch up towards a cold and wet Saturday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/21/rain-early-wednesday-morning-chilly-pattern-continues/
Apr 19
Highlights:
Low pressure over IN this evening will move north into the Great Lakes Monday and strengthen along the way. A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and Monday morning and shut off the heavier rainfall. Before that we have several hours of additional moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight. Tomorrow will be a breezy and MUCH cooler day and help set the tone for the week as a whole. We’ll watch for a weak disturbance to provide a shower chance mid week and keep a close eye on the weekend for the chances of rain. Model data is in disagreement on Saturday as of now.
Tonight’s radar, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, shows another slug of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunder moving in from the south. Heavy downpours will make for excellent sleeping weather tonight.
Overall rain coverage will decrease significantly as we progress through Monday, but we can’t totally rule out the chance of afternoon showers redeveloping in “pop-corn” fashion as just enough sunshine may work on what will be a very unseasonably cool air mass moving in.
Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows this Monday afternoon.
Unseasonably chilly air will be the rule this week- including 50s for highs most every day. The only exception may be highs around 60 Tuesday and highs that may not make it out of the 40s Wednesday. Frost and freeze conditions will be a concern on multiple nights/ mornings this week.
After a warm month (to date) [image 1], Mother Nature will do what she does best- attempt to balance things out the upcoming 7-10 days [image 2].
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/19/unseasonably-cool-stretch/
Apr 18
Highlights:
This morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows the big swirl over the CO Rockies. This will continue to move slowly east over the next couple of days. Surface low pressure will organize over the lower MS Valley tonight and move north into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. After a beautiful Saturday, clouds will increase tonight and widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday morning. With a deep Gulf connection, expect heavy rainfall, as well. Much cooler air will then take over next week- jackets will be needed!
Before the rain and storms move in Sunday, be sure to enjoy the weather today- lots of sunshine and lower 80s!
Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows the wet and stormy Sunday ahead. Rain will push north through early and mid morning Sunday, continuing into the evening.
An average of 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely, with isolated heavier totals Sunday. The model breakdown is below.
The Canadian shows the least amount of rain, with 0.50″ – 0.75″ through central IN.
The GFS paints 1.2″ of rain through central IN, with a “ribbon” of enhanced rainfall along the IN/ IL state line.
The high resolution NAM places emphasis on central and eastern portions of the state, including 1.5″ to 2″ amounts.
The RGEM shows a similar story to the high resolution NAM (above) with 1.5″ to 2″ through central IN.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/18/almost-summer-like-today-before-sunday-storms/
Apr 17
https://youtu.be/_5kethxFEUw
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/17/friday-evening-video-update-3/