Jun 14
Today is the beginning of several active days around these parts. Over the course of the next few days severe weather and heavy rainfall will keep us on our toes…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/14/busy-times-in-the-forecast-office/
Jun 13
Highlights:
We’re opening the weekend with dry skies across central IN, along with a very tropical feel. The combination of a nearby weak boundary and the humid air mass will help fuel isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon. That said, overall coverage of storms will be reduced from what we saw Friday. Most of the day will feature dry conditions.
We’ll begin to increase storm chances as we rumble into the second half of the weekend and on into the new work week. Some of these may be strong to severe Sunday-Monday, including strong damaging winds and large hail.
Attention will then shift to mid week and the potential of an excessive rainfall event. Modeling is leaning towards tracking a tropical disturbance north out of the western GOM (Gulf of Mexico) before shifting northeast around the periphery of a southeastern ridge. Very heavy rainfall would result if this idea pans out. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/13/today-is-the-pick-of-the-week-wet-and-stormy-pattern-looms/
Jun 12
The Storm Prediction Center highlights the region for a risk of severe weather both today and Sunday. Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook As for timing, we expect…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/12/strong-to-severe-storm-potential-active-pattern/
Jun 09
From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail. (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).
Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May. (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).
Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.
Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks. May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead. This, of course, is fantastic news.
As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves. Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).
Day 2- Wednesday
Day 3- Thursday
As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond). In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month. It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.
In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks. The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.
A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead. Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.
Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.
Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:
The JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.
BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you. The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead. Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games… Long way to go here, however… 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/ag-weather-report-6915/
Jun 07
An active and noisy night is on tap, friends, as multiple storm clusters move through central Indiana. Initially, the concern is hoisted for severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. As the night progresses, the growing concern will be flash flooding as storms train over the same area, potentially leading to 3″+ rains in localized areas.
We’re currently eyeing convection firing to our northwest and these storms will push southeast this evening. They will move into a very warm, humid, and unstable environment and will likely strengthen as they ride into north-central IN later this evening. Here’s a snap shot of the radar valid at 8p:
Note as we progress into the overnight, additional storms are likely and flooding concerns are on the rise due to this. Radar valid at 3a:
Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be common tonight across central IN, but some localized reports of 3″-4″ can’t be ruled out where storms train. Here’s a look at potential rainfall numbers through 5a:
We note PWATs (precipitable water values) pushing close to 2″ overnight and this increases our confidence on the heavy rainfall potential, as well:
Stay weather-aware tonight, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/07/very-active-night-ahead/
May 29
A quick step out of the door this morning and you’ll note the significant uptick in humidity overnight. A very warm, humid day is on tap with an isolated or…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/29/friday-morning-already-sticky-out-there/
May 26
Things are growing a bit dry around these parts. Officially we’re down 3.25″ for the month and close to 5″ on the year. (Climate information for IND: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ind)
Rains the past (14) days have favored the central region, falling apart as the systems push east and northeast. Texas and Oklahoma continue to make news headlines from severe flooding. – Too much of a good thing all at once.
Officially we’re not even listed in the “abnormally dry” shading, but that very well may change with the Thursday update. Courtesy of the Regional Drought Monitor:
Anytime you go through May with a significant rainfall deficit it raises a concern for continued dry times going through summer. Dry typically breeds dry this time of year, and eventually heat. That said, a strengthening El Nino will fight the recent trend. Around these parts weak to moderate summer El Ninos tend to yield average (to slightly above) precipitation and average (to slightly below normal) temperatures. Recent trends, combined with longer term forecasts certainly prove to lead to a battle in the coming weeks and months…
Shorter term as we progress through the coming days, here’s how we currently assess rainfall coverage:
* Rainfall potential through the weekend: 0.50″-1″ for most, with locally heavier totals under stronger storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/26/more-on-the-rain-situation-or-lack-thereof/
May 21
Highlights:
An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above). As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day. An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run. Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening. A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening. We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/21/great-weekend-weather-ahead/
May 21
Just a quick update here this morning before we post our updated 7-day later this evening. Forecast models are trending drier for the weekend, which is sure to put big…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/21/a-word-on-the-weekend/
May 19
Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/19/chilly-now-continuing-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-sunday/