Category: Forecast Discussion

Jul 12

Sunday Evening Update On Monday’s Weather Situation…

6psatAn update this evening shows severe thunderstorms beginning to ignite over the northern Plains.  This is all associated with the first in a series of upper disturbances that will move southeast and provide multiple waves of severe weather around our neck of the woods over the upcoming 24-48 hours.

Data this evening really hasn’t changed from what we think will be a potentially dangerous day of severe weather and flooding across central Indiana.  It’ll be highly important to remain weather-aware tomorrow and have a means of getting the latest weather information.  Please take all warnings seriously.  Conditions are highly favorable for numerous damaging wind reports tomorrow and we suggest taking severe thunderstorm warnings as if they were tornado warnings tomorrow because of this.

* Please understand that though some of the data below includes time stamps for reference of what the radar may look like that these storm complexes often take a mind of their own and can accelerate off to the southeast sometimes quicker than what modeled radar may project 12+ hours out.  Tomorrow will certainly be a nowcast situation, beginning early in the morning.

With that said, we forecast multiple waves of severe weather tomorrow, beginning in the morning.  With high PWAT values, or precipitable water values, thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and flash flooding.  It should be noted that with precipitable water values of over 2″ tomorrow (photo below) combined with recent saturated soils, flash flooding is a major concern.

1Speaking of flash flooding, latest data suggests rainfall of only 0.8″-1.5″ within a (3) hr. time period will lead to flash flooding.

ffg_IN_3Again, keeping in mind with the disclaimer prior, here’s what the radar may look like late morning, mid afternoon, and tomorrow night.

11a

3p

11pIn addition to the aforementioned flash flood concerns, we’re also supremely concerned with the potential of damaging straight line winds, particularly with the 3rd complex of storms Monday evening/ night.  Earlier in the day, and depending on how the atmosphere “recovers” with the 1st round of storms Monday morning, conditions are favorable for discrete super cells to develop during the mid afternoon (radar image #2 above).  While there are questions, early to mid afternoon would be the most likely time frame for potential tornadic activity and large hail.

To close, please ensure you have a means of getting the latest weather information Monday- beginning early in the morning.  Go ahead and charge your phones, tablets, and other electronics.  We suggest reviewing your severe weather safety plan with your family this evening  to provide a peace of mind, and to ensure you and your loved ones are prepared in the event severe weather and flooding develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/12/sunday-evening-update-on-mondays-weather-situation/

Jul 12

Active Pattern; Severe Weather A Major Concern…

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 9.43.43 AMHighlights:

  • Another round of strong to severe storms rumble in tonight
  • Significant severe weather outbreak Monday
  • Storms and flood threat continue Tuesday
  • Drying out and turning hot late week

A very active weather pattern will remain through the short-term.  Overnight storms have exited to the southeast and we’re now dealing with dry weather and sunshine. A few storms could bubble up this afternoon in the very humid air mass, but the more widespread showers and thunderstorms will hold off until late tonight as another northwest to southeast moving complex rumbles in.  Similar to early this morning, flash flooding will be a concern, along with the potential of damaging wind, and hail.

Perhaps more concerning is what we think will be a secondary thunderstorm complex Monday evening into Monday night.  Furthermore, conditions appear to favor the threat of a couple super cells developing in advance of the big storm cluster.  These individual super cells will have the potential of producing tornadoes and large hail.  We’re then concerned of a widespread damaging wind threat with the large storm complex as it moves southeast.  Torrential rains and flash flooding will also be a big concern.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday, but there’s a light at the end of this wet tunnel by mid week.  We forecast a few days of dry weather in the Wednesday through Saturday time period.  As ridging expands, heat and humidity will build in a big time way.  For those holding out for true summer heat, next weekend may be your time!  That said, the long range pattern still supports a wetter/ cooler than normal regime quickly returning so enjoy!

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″-3″ with locally heavier totals

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/12/active-pattern-severe-weather-a-major-concern/

Jul 11

Multiple Rounds Of Severe Weather Beginning Sunday…

Good morning and happy Saturday, friends!  After a prolonged stretch of clouds, rain, drizzle, and fog, today will feature a good deal of sunshine and very pleasant conditions.  Unfortunately, the sunshine and pleasant weather won’t last long as storms and severe weather chances ramp up beginning Sunday, and continues through Monday.

A hot dome (high pressure ridge) will be centered over Texas and this will place our immediate region under a rather busy northwest flow.  Multiple disturbances (highlighted in blue below) will rotate northwest to southeast around the periphery of the Texas ridge.  Each disturbance will be capable of producing heavy rain and thunderstorms, including severe weather.

Sunday morning

1Monday morning

2Tuesday morning

3The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the region for a risk of severe weather both Sunday and Monday, and they mention large hail, widespread damaging wind potential, and isolated tornadoes- particularly with Monday’s event.

Day Two Outlook (Sunday)

SundayDay Three Outlook (Monday)

MondayWe’ll begin the action late tonight/ Sunday morning (forecast radar below is a time stamp series from 7a to 12p Sunday) with the first in the expected series of thunderstorms rumbling in from the northwest.  

Moral of the story? Enjoy today’s sunshine, but get ready for more active weather in the coming days!
   

  

  

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/11/multiple-rounds-of-severe-weather-beginning-sunday/

Jul 10

Same Song And Dance…

Well, here we go again: cloudy skies, rain showers moving in, and cooler than normal temperatures. Another gloomy and wet day is ahead for central Indiana as a couple waves…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/10/same-song-and-dance/

Jul 08

More Heavy Rain Inbound Tonight…

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Jul 08

Cloudy, Cool Day; Rain Builds In Later…

We’re off to a cloudy and cool start, but at least things are dry this morning. The frontal boundary that delivered the rain and flooding to central IN Tuesday has…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/08/cloudy-cool-day-rain-builds-in-later/

Jul 05

Sunday Morning Catch Up…

We hope this finds you coming off an enjoyable Independence Day with friends and family! As we look at the snap shot of the opening to July we see that…

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Jul 03

4th of July Weekend Update And Looking At Next Week…

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Jul 01

Wednesday Night Rambles…

Just a few thoughts on this Wednesday night… 1.) June officially closed wetter than normal and near average temperature-wise…      The Indianapolis National Weather Service posted this earlier today, further…

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Jun 29

July Outlook

With only a few days left of June, thoughts are turning to the 4th of July holiday, getting those summer vacations taken care of before school starts back, and pre season football practice starting up.

June will finish as one of the wettest on record, and coming on the heels of a very dry May, we’re actually right where we should be from a year-to-date precipitation perspective.

Here are some highlights we’re focusing in on that’ll impact our July weather:

  • Highly amplified MJO
  • Very wet June through the Mid West/ Ohio Valley
  • Warm water off the East Coast
  • Persistent western ridging

June will finish as a top 5-10 wettest June on record for many communities throughout our immediate region. With the wet conditions, it’s very tough to get any sort of long-lasting truly hot weather and while we’re certain to have plenty of warm, humid days during the upcoming four weeks (it is July, after all), we don’t anticipate any sort of significant heat wave. We fully expect being able to save on cooling costs when compared to normal.  We also note a highly amplified MJO, or Madden-Julian oscillation.

In July, phases 6-7 are cool signals for our region.

  
 We note sea surface temperatures are quite warm off the eastern seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. While this doesn’t have a direct impact on our weather here in regards to temperature, it can suggest some southeast and eastern ridging at times. When we look at the upper air pattern below, we note the region will likely be in between predominant ridge positions east and west for July. The end result for our particular part of the country would be a cooler and continued unsettled time of things for the better part of July.


*As a side note, this sort of water profile does “raise an eyebrow” for potential tropical activity in the Gulf and potentially along the east coast, and that’s something that we’ll have to keep a close eye on as we progress into the heart of the season.

We sort through a variety of data to help build our weekly (client based) and monthly upper air charts. While we can’t share all of those forecast models here directly with you (due to licensing), a combination of GFS ensemble data, CFSv2, and European weeklies have helped us build this upper air pattern for July.

July2015UAThis would provide continued cooler than normal times (particularly daytime highs, considering the wet ground) and a busy time tracking cold fronts and individual disturbances that will ignite frequent showers and thunderstorms.

“Average” July weather for IND includes mid 80s for highs, mid 60s for lows, and 4.5″ of rainfall.  In summary, we anticipate July 2015 to run 2-3 degrees below average and precipitation to run above normal by a couple inches.  We think we just keep on rolling down the tracks from the wet and active regime put into place in June.  Time will tell!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/29/july-outlook/

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