Nov 05
As promised, we wanted to provide some thoughts around the updated sea surface temperature constructed analog model that was released this morning. In short, there aren’t many huge differences from…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/05/updated-sst-ca-model-is-in-the-house/
Nov 04
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/04/wednesday-morning-video-update-tricky-temperature-forecast-today-looking-ahead/
Nov 03
The latest SST configuration has to continue putting a smile on the face of central and eastern winter lovers for the upcoming season. We’re not going to feel anything…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/03/rambling-around-on-an-early-november-morning/
Oct 30
As we scan the latest computer models this morning we really see no reason to deviate from our forecast already out there on Halloween. While it shouldn’t be a complete…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/30/closer-look-at-halloween-weather/
Oct 27
Please excuse the lighting in this video. (Still trying to get the new office set up)! https://youtu.be/l15pHYwTq_I
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/27/wet-and-windy-before-we-turn-much-cooler/
Oct 26
After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.
Here’s the plot line…
The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.
Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.
BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.
As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.
Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/26/contradiction-in-model-world/
Oct 26
Today can be labeled as the so called “calm before the storm,” as sunny skies greet us out the door. It’ll be a very pleasant Monday with highs in the middle 60s. Sunny skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy later in the day as moisture continues to stream north associated with Patricia’s remnants.
This morning’s satellite picture:
When we look at the weather picture tomorrow we note the remnant moisture of Patricia continuing to lift north while a cold front approaches from the west. The “squeeze play” that will ensue over the region will be just what the doctor ordered as widespread rain develops during the daytime Tuesday before growing heavy Tuesday night.
8a Tuesday Futurecast
8p Tuesday Futurecast
Overnight Tuesday-Wednesday morning Futurecast
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected. When you average (5) computer models at this point then you get the idea rainfall totals will be somewhere in the range of 1.5″-2″ inches, with locally heavier totals.
Modeled rainfall totals by Wednesday morning
The story after the big rain storm moves away? A very windy and much cooler feel as a strong trough moves into the eastern portion of the country. This will keep temperatures significantly below normal for the 2nd half of the week on into the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/26/heavy-rain-then-colder/
Oct 19
We posted our annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook last Saturday. If you haven’t read it yet, or want some good material to put you to sleep :-), feel free to click here.
Tonight we see the latest seasonal long range European model shifting the Nino to more of a central-based El Nino as we rumble deeper and deeper into winter. This is another indicator that mid and late winter could be cold. In any event, here you go:
Nov, Dec, Jan
Dec, Jan, Feb
Jan, Feb, March
There sure have been a lot of comparisons of this El Nino to that of ’97-’98. That’s fine in talking strength, but the overall SST profile both in the Pacific AND Atlantic is vastly different.
Hmmm…time to go dream about snow storms. – Combine a positive PDO with a central-based El Nino and there could very well be plenty of wintry “fun and games” in the months ahead.
Click here for more from the fantastic European Centre For Medium Range Forecasts site.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/19/i-like-it-euro/
Oct 16
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/16/friday-morning-video-update/
Oct 13
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/13/another-shot-of-cool-air-coming-longer-range-talk/