May 23
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/23/june-outlook/
May 21
After a damp and chilly open to the weekend, drier air began to infiltrate the region this afternoon and led to a brighter/ warmer finish to the day. We’ll add more sunshine and tack on a few degrees to the afternoon high on Sunday. It’ll be a phenomenal weather day across central IN, thanks to high pressure. Get out and enjoy it!
Dry and sunny weather will greet us to open the new work week, along with temperatures that will approach the 80 degree mark by Tuesday. Have yard work to get caught up on? Take advantage of the early week weather.
Things will begin to change towards an unsettled regime as early as Tuesday evening/ Wednesday as the region gets into an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow.
As such, we’ll increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms in our mid week forecast. It’ll also be a much more humid feel of things (really for the first time this year) as surface dew points surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s. (In other words, “oppressive”).
Factor in PWATs (precipitable water values) zooming to 1.5″-1.8″ and the threat is there for localized heavy downpours around mid week.
Additionally, we also note the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western sections of our forecast area in a risk of severe weather Wednesday. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
As we progress into the late week period and on into the long holiday/ race weekend, a warm, humid, and unsettled time of things is expected to continue. It’s tough to pinpoint specifics from this distance, but just keep note of the threat of thunderstorms into and through the upcoming busy weekend, along with warm (highs in the lower to middle 80s; lows in the upper 60s) and humid conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/21/busy-week-ahead-turns-active-in-the-weather-department/
May 16
Through the first half of May, temperatures are running more than 2 degrees below average at IND. We’re in the middle of a rather large area of below normal temperatures from the SW into the NE region.
We’ll remain below average through the upcoming week, but temperatures will begin to moderate over the weekend into next week.
In general, we agree with the temperature anomalies above, courtesy of the GEFS. As noted, the cool start to the period will moderate and turn warmer next week. Unfortunately, that warmer trend won’t last and it’s likely we trend cooler around the Memorial Day weekend.
In the shorter range, light rain will spread into central IN late tonight into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts won’t be significant, and should be generally around 0.25″, or less.
Drier air is still expected for mid week, as high pressure builds into the region. Needed sunshine and pleasant conditions can be expected.
As we look forward to the weekend, modeling is still at odds with one another. The European remains consistent on the idea of heavy rain while the GFS remains consistent on a drier solution (rain, but much lighter amounts). That said, we note the consensus of the GFS ensemble members is more aggressive and reflects the idea of the European. We’ll remain firm on the idea of potentially heavy rain building in Friday into Saturday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/16/monday-evening-update/
May 10
1.) The month of May has gotten off to a chilly start and given the period of unseasonably chilly air that looms later this week, it’s safe to say these cool anomalies will grow even cooler.
The coolest day looks to be Saturday with highs only in the mid 50s.
2.) In the shorter term, we’re keeping an eye on strong-severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening across southern and central parts of the state. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.
Not everyone will see heavy rain amounts today, but a few neighborhoods may deal with localized flooding issues as slow moving heavy storms potentially train over communities. Where this happens, 2″+ rain totals are a good bet by midnight.
3.) Forecast models remain in a state of disagreement concerning late this weekend into early next week. The GFS is particularly bullish on the idea of wet (heavy rain threat), chilly times whereas the European is much drier (and warmer). We’ll keep an eye on things and hope for consistency this afternoon. Speaking of this afternoon, we’ll have our updated 7-day posted later today! Make it a great Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/10/tuesday-morning-rambles-3/
May 09
An unsettled week ahead will feature periods of more widespread rain and stronger storms at times between now and Wednesday. We’re focused on Tuesday for the potential of strong to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/09/monday-morning-video-update-strong-storms-tuesday-much-colder-end-to-the-week/
May 05
An upper level low is still impacting our weather this morning, but this feature isn’t wasting any time scooting southeast. In fact, by this afternoon, we should be looking at increasingly sunny skies and temperatures that will slowly recover from the chilly, raw readings of this morning.
With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will recover into the lower 60s today (still below average, but an improvement).
High pressure will build into the region to wrap up the work week and provide a delightful close to what’s been a rather gloomy week. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures into the lower 70s are on tap.
That said, this is still an active weather pattern that will require close attention in the week ahead.
The anamalous trough will “relax” and give way to transient ridging, but there are indications of another trough setting up Days 8-10. Giving the pattern, it’s likely that the aforementioned trough will be deeper (more significant) than what model data currently portrays (image 3).
It’s a rather wet pattern, as well. 7-day rain numbers of 1″-1.5″ seems reasonable with locally heavier totals.
Our next chance of rain comes Saturday in the form of scattered, mostly PM variety, storms.
More later! Make it a great Thursday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/05/hang-in-there-friends/
May 03
Heavy drizzle and patchy light rain are falling across central IN this morning along with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It’s a raw morning. As we move forward, areas of light rain and drizzle will remain in the forecast into the early afternoon before we potentially brighten the skies in areas during the afternoon. That sun may be just enough to pop a shower or (non-severe) storm during the afternoon.
Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Wednesday and will be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning. Once this passes, expect breezy conditions with steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day. Pack a jacket tomorrow as temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s.
Rainfall amounts should be in the 0.25″-0.50″ range between now and Wednesday afternoon.
We’ll dry things out and warm up as we progress through the latter portions of the work week and the weekend. Beforehand, look for lows in the upper 30s Thursday morning.
As we look ahead, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Saturday evening. We’ll “sure up” timing in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/03/damp-chilly-tuesday/
May 02
It’s a cool, gloomy open to the work week. We’ll turn even cooler by mid week, BUT changes are coming that promise increasingly warm and sunny conditions by the weekend.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/02/monday-afternoon-video-update/
Apr 30
Happy Saturday all! Widespread rain and embedded thunder will overspread central IN as we progress through the morning hours. Steady rain will continue through the lunchtime hour before we see a break in widespread rains.
After a break in the rain, we’ll have to keep an eye on the potential of strong to severe storms developing this afternoon and evening (especially across southern IN). Hail and damaging winds are of greatest concern with storms that develop, but a tornado is also possible.
Another round of scattered thunderstorms will rumble across the state Sunday.
Widespread weekend rainfall totals should fall in the 1″-1.5″ range for most, but there will also be some locally heavier totals.
As we progress into the upcoming week, cool air will be the big weather story. Perhaps the coolest days will be next Thursday-Friday (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/30/widespread-rain-this-morning-then-watching-for-strong-severe-storms-this-evening/
Apr 28
Noisy thunderstorms (non-severe) are impacting southern ‘burbs this morning, but dry time is coming as we get into the heart of the rush hour. This dry time will continue into the late morning hours, but renewed showers and thunder will likely fire yet again early this afternoon (in scattered fashion).
After an unsettled few days, we’ll get a break, albeit brief, from the wet, stormy times to close the work week. High pressure will present an increasingly sunny sky Friday, but it’ll be much cooler than today (mid 60s for highs Friday).
As mentioned, dry times won’t last long. Rain builds back in Saturday and lingers into Sunday. Locally heavy rain is possible, including embedded thunderstorms. Early rain numbers fall in the 1″-1.5″ range over the weekend.
As we open May, attention turns to a much cooler than normal feel of things. In fact, overnight data is particularly bullish on the chill next Thursday morning (suggests mid 30s).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/28/thursday-morning-weather-notebook/