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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/05/evening-video-update-october-like-chill-settles-in/
Sep 04
VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…
The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening. Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).
MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/04/video-severe-potential-tonight-october-like-chill-and-irma/
Sep 03
Strong Cold Front Delivers Storms And Another Surge Of October-Like Air…
Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit. We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches. A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms. The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.
After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in. As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.
6p forecast radar
8p forecast radar
9p forecast radar
10p forecast radar
Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass. Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October. We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/03/strong-cold-front-delivers-storms-and-another-surge-of-october-like-air/
Aug 31
VIDEO: Windy & Unseasonably Cool Close To The Work Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/31/video-windy-unseasonably-cool-close-to-the-work-week/
Aug 30
Pleasant Now; Very Cool, Wet (For Some), And Windy Close To The Week…
Highlights:
- Pleasant stretch of midweek weather
- Harvey’s remnants impact the region
- Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day
Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather. Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.
Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants. The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds. While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state. Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely). The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday. Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times. Have the jackets and sweaters ready.
Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.
We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself. Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week. Get set for an October-like feel…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.30″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/30/pleasant-now-very-cool-wet-for-some-and-windy-close-to-the-week/
Aug 29
Tuesday Morning Rambles…
I.) Overnight rain and storms impacted central Indiana during the overnight. Some of the slow moving storms dumped a quick 2″ of rain in isolated areas, but most ended up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/29/tuesday-morning-rambles-4/
Aug 28
Wet Start To The Work Week; Keeping A Close Eye On Harvey…
Highlights:
- Wet open to the work week
- Late week backdoor cold front
- Where will Harvey’s remnants track?
More Active Week Of Weather Than We’ve Seen In Some Time…When you factor in upper level energy kicking up showers and embedded thunder early this week, a backdoor cold front Thursday, and potentially dealing with the remnants of Harvey by the weekend, then you have the makings for much more active times than we’ve seen in months. Before we move forward, we must say the weekend forecast is incredibly difficult and confidence is very low at the moment with any one particular scenario concerning Harvey’s remnants. It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we progress through the next few days.
Showers this morning are associated with upper level energy tracking east across the Ohio Valley. While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, there’ll be more dry time than wet. Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems. A backdoor cold front will slip into the state Thursday. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible as the front moves south followed by a cooler close to the work week.
Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to suggest Harvey’s remnants will eventually begin to track north, northeast. There will be a limit to the northward extent of Harvey’s moisture before an approaching strong cold front (same one that will deliver the coolest air here since last spring) and associated deep trough “shoves” him east. We’ll take a blend of data at this point and mention showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture from Harvey makes it into the Ohio Valley. With that said, the solutions still range from “dry” to “heavy rain” and we’ll have to fine tune things as we move forward. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/28/wet-start-to-the-work-week-keeping-a-close-eye-on-harvey/
Aug 24
Quick Thursday Morning Comment…
Good morning, friends! Temperatures this morning are in the lower 50s for many across central Indiana as our “hint” of fall continues to wrap up the month of August. I…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/24/quick-thursday-morning-comment/
Aug 21
Chances Of Needed Rain Increasing For Central Indiana…
August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry. Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.
We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana. The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.
With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.
Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/21/chances-of-needed-rain-increasing-for-central-indiana/
Aug 19
VIDEO: Cool Changes Loom Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/19/video-cool-changes-loom-next-week/