Week 1 remains significantly wetter than normal across not only our neck of the woods but a good chunk of the East.
This will give way to a quieter Week 2 timeframe.
There’s some threat that the southern tier and immediate eastern seaboard never is fully able to relish in the magnitude of the warm anomalies the majority of the rest of us will see as we roll through early February. Just to reiterate, as much as we believe cold, wintry weather returns in February, it’s not after a significant period of milder times (compared to average) to open the month- likely the first 10-14 days.
Just how mild are we talking? Several days with highs into the 40s and even 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This compares to early Feb “norms” in the low 20s and highs into the upper 30s. It’s a byproduct of the MJO and alignment with the teleconnections (PNA aside) in the warm phases. As shown Monday in our LR video, we believe this all flips around in a big way later into the month, continuing into March.
In the short term, additional waves of rain (and dense fog) will keep things gloomy around these parts. Most widespread rain will come at us now through late morning before returning Thursday evening-overnight. Most rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 0.75” to as much as 1.25”+ during this time period.
Modeling continues to differ in a major fashion with the weekend storm. The GFS is further north with heavy precipitation and a transition to leftover snow showers, locally while the European takes the suppressed route. Today will likely bring alignment between the two solutions. . .
Overall, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing ideas from last night’s video. If you didn’t have an opportunity to catch that, we encourage you to do so as it highlights our medium and long range thoughts in more detail.
The focus will change from one of ice to periods of rain (and dense fog) through the remainder of the week. We note multiple waves of more widespread rain that will ride into central Indiana over the next few days. While it won’t rain the entire time, an extended period of gloomy conditions will unfortunately be with us as we navigate the next few days and kick off the weekend.
Periods of rain can be expected through the remainder of the week.
Speaking of the weekend, we continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure that appears to take a classic track for a heavy snow dump around these parts. The problem? Cold air is fleeting and it’ll take the perfect combination of track, timing, and precipitation rates to generate anything meaningful from a wintry standpoint, locally. As of now, we favor this “sweet spot” to lay just north of our immediate area, but we’ll continue to closely monitor.
That brings us to our final point this morning and that’s wanting to ensure we drive home the idea here of an overall milder to significantly milder than normal pattern over the upcoming 10-14 days as a whole. While we’re incredibly bullish on winter’s return, we’re equally as impressed by this overall milder signal in the short to medium term.
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Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…
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This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.
While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.
The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.
Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.
The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.
Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).
Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.
Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/21/sunday-morning-rambles-talking-about-icing-monday-evening-wet-week-ahead-and-potential-of-a-wintry-return/
Updated 12.24.23 @ 6:50a Areas of fog and drizzle will dissipate as we progress through the day and we even expect some breaks in the clouds at times. An unseasonably…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/24/video-fog-lifts-and-gives-way-to-unseasonably-mild-conditions-christmas-rain-and-colder-transition-later-in-the-week/
Updated 12.23.23 @ 7a When we look at our current mild December, I suppose it should really come as no surprise, especially given our research that began early September with…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/23/video-wet-unseasonably-mild-christmas-still-on-deck-colder-shift-to-close-the-year-and-open-january/
Updated 12.18.23 @ 7:49a Snow squalls will become widespread in the coming hours along with gusty winds and falling temperatures. Allow extra time when traveling today as we anticipate road…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/18/video-snow-squalls-inbound-gloomy-christmas-weather-and-a-look-ahead-to-a-pattern-shift-to-close-the-year/
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will continue to move east across the state this morning. Morning showers will come to an end from west to east over the next couple of hours. Speaking of rain, most area rain gauges picked up around half an inch of precipitation overnight. (Thank you for all of your reports)!
Meanwhile, our big coastal low will continue to deepen on its’ journey north along the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours. Major impacts from high surf, heavy rain, and strong winds can be expected up and down the East Coast, along with significant airport impacts Monday. – Certainly not the start to the pre-Christmas week of travel many may hope for. As colder air pours in on the backside, a heavy, wind-whipped snow event will unfold from the high ground of those beautiful east TN and western NC mountains, up into the interior portions of the Northeast.
Surface Map Sunday Morning
Back here on the home front, we still anticipate a piece of upper level energy to accompany a brief “jab” of arctic air to open up the last work week before Christmas.
This will help snow showers develop Monday morning with some locally intense snow squalls impacting the region late morning through the afternoon. These squalls will be most widespread north and east of the city, itself, but even into Indianapolis, I’d anticipate a couple heavy bursts of snow and briefly reduced visibilities Monday. While a dusting to perhaps as much as a half inch of snow is all we can expect across immediate central Indiana, areas downwind of Lake Michigan (north-central and northeast Indiana, including portions of east-central Indiana) can expect 1″ to 2″ with locally heavier amounts in spots where more persistent lake bands take hold.
While we’re not envisioning any sort of plowable snows locally, the brief more intense squalls will be capable of producing slick spots at times. Plan to allow extra time to safely reach your destination. Snow removal Clients, salting will be required across central and east-central Indiana Monday.
Snow showers and heavier squalls will increase through the day Monday.
Wind will be the other component Monday, along with falling temperatures. We expect northwest gusts to approach 35 MPH at times. Wind chills will fall into the 10s.
Just as quickly as the snow and wind hits Monday, it’ll leave. High pressure will build in overhead Tuesday allowing sunshine to return in full force. After a cold day, temperatures will begin to moderate through midweek.
An increasingly moist, but milder, southwesterly flow will take hold late week which will lead to increasingly cloudy and gloomy conditions with rain returning. Unfortunately from this distance, it still appears that we’ll remain socked in with clouds and rain at times Christmas along with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. Areas of fog can also be expected at times.
Rain will return Thursday night and remain with us periodically through the Christmas holiday.
Longer term, all systems are “a go” for a more substantial pattern shift towards colder and potentially wintry fun and games as we close out the year and head deeper into January. Model guidance over the weekend has grown more intriguing with not only the idea of a slower MJO rotation through the classic cold phases, and the EPO is also showing more and more signs of going negative.
While still not ready to say we’re primed for any sort of arctic outbreak, the thought here remains that we go slightly colder than normal early January with an active southern stream of the jet. Based off what the EPO and MJO do beyond this point (along with the AO/ NAO combo come mid-month), and the potential of laying a snowpack down will determine how cold we can go beyond mid-Jan.
You don’t need us to tell you that our El Nino is alive and kicking. What’s of interest is the cooler trends that continue in earnest in region 1+2. Should this continue, then the plot will thicken late winter and spring for the possibility of continued colder trends. . .
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/29/video-localized-flooding-concerns-increase-over-the-next-few-days-into-the-middle-of-next-week/
