Category Archives: Flooding

Heavy Rain This Morning; Nighttime Storms…

Our Saturday morning will be dominated by soaking rains as moisture continues to stream across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.  Add in temperatures in the lower to middle 40s and you have our official approval to sleep in this morning.  🙂

Steady rain will give way to briefly drier conditions early to mid afternoon.  While scattered showers will still be present, widespread moderate to heavy rain will diminish.  Here’s a look at the forecast radar at 3p:

Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will return by evening, and forecast radar products at 8p and 2a Sunday show the stormy times well:

A couple of storms may become strong to severe (especially downstate).  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat of severe weather to encompass more of the state.

We’re most concerned for the potential of stronger storms to produce damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out tonight.  Additionally, we’ll also have to be on guard for potential of flash flooding as storms will be capable of torrential rainfall.  Heavy rain falling on already saturated soils may lead to problems in spots tonight into early Sunday.

After early morning storms head east Sunday, high pressure will build in with drier conditions and increasing sunshine Sunday. It’ll be a very nice close to the weekend, and calm, pleasant conditions will continue as we progress through the early portions of the new work week.

No Comments Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms

Near Record Warmth & More Heavy Rain…

The big weather story Tuesday across central Indiana will be the near-record warmth.  Typically it’s not until mid-May that average high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 70s, but we’re going to get an early taste of May tomorrow afternoon. Several records are in jeopardy of falling across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.

Steadiest rains will fall across the northern third of the state Tuesday with scattered downpours through the morning and afternoon hours across central Indiana.

Forecast radar 12p Tuesday.

Heavier rain will overspread central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front settles south.

Forecast radar 4a Wednesday.

As the front continues to sink south, much colder air will quickly overspread the area.  By the rush hour, many neighborhoods north of Indianapolis will already be around freezing.  As moisture continues to stream northeast, areas of freezing rain will be possible on elevated and exposed surfaces Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.  With the recent warm, wet conditions, we don’t expect significant travel issues across central Indiana.

After a quieter time of things most of Thursday, we’re tracking three additional waves of moisture Friday and through the weekend.  At times, rain will be heavy, and we’ll certainly have to be on guard for water rise and increasing flooding issues as the weekend arrives.

By the time all is set and done Monday morning, we forecast additional widespread 3.5″ to 5″ rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts.

 

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Record Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Saturday Morning Rambles: Periods Of Heavy Rain Early Next Week…

I. A weak weather maker will help spread a mixture of light rain and snow across the state later today, particularly this afternoon and evening.  Precipitation amounts will remain light and insignificant, but serve as a nuisance as you go about your weekend plans.

II.  We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.

A rather ominous setup for heavy rain will take place Monday into Wednesday.  This will include a combination of ingredients as a strong southeast ridge will prevent much forward motion of a “wavy” front that will drape itself across the Ohio Valley region.  Additionally, the subtropical jet will transport moisture-rich air northward into the area (true Gulf of Mexico connection).

While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.

Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots.  Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.

III. Longer-term, we still need to be wary of the potential of a colder pattern returning as we get into March.  That forecast deep negative arctic oscillation (AO) has to raise an eyebrow for the possibility of making up for lost time in the cold weather department before we can signal “all clear” on winter…

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, AO, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles