A combination of ingredients are coming together to offer up the potential of heavy rain for portions of the region this weekend.
An approaching cold front will drop slowly southeast out of the Plains while a tropical low moves inland from the central Gulf Coast.
The precise placement of the front will serve as the focal point for heavy weekend rains. As we’d expect from this distance, modeling disagrees on the all-important specifics. Using a model blend, central Indiana is on the table for heavy late week-weekend rain as of now. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will be above 2″ and suggest the threat of torrential downpours, including localized flash flooding across the Ohio Valley. Eventually, the cold front will sweep the tropical-rich moisture away from the region and cooler, much less humid air will press in by this time next week.
We still have time to watch the evolution of things play out as we progress through mid week. Stay tuned as we “sure-up” the details and hone in on the area where heavy rain is likely.
The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture and precipitable water values (2″+) will promote localized flash flooding within the storm complexes.
We think the initial wave of storms will ride southeast late tonight and early Monday and could encompass SW portions of the forecast area. The pattern is favorable for additional storm complexes to travel southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, however.
Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry. We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.
Rain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.
Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts. Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives. As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!
We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.
The first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.
We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours. We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.
Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours. 