I. A weak weather maker will help spread a mixture of light rain and snow across the state later today, particularly this afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will remain light and insignificant, but serve as a nuisance as you go about your weekend plans.
II. We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.
A rather ominous setup for heavy rain will take place Monday into Wednesday. This will include a combination of ingredients as a strong southeast ridge will prevent much forward motion of a “wavy” front that will drape itself across the Ohio Valley region. Additionally, the subtropical jet will transport moisture-rich air northward into the area (true Gulf of Mexico connection).
While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.
Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots. Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.
III. Longer-term, we still need to be wary of the potential of a colder pattern returning as we get into March. That forecast deep negative arctic oscillation (AO) has to raise an eyebrow for the possibility of making up for lost time in the cold weather department before we can signal “all clear” on winter…
III. We’ll turn briefly colder to close the work week. A couple of light snow showers are possible Friday morning and a wave of low pressure will “try” to push moisture into the cold air Saturday. As of now, we remain unimpressed with the prospect of impactful wintry weather Saturday, but have included the potential of wet snow in our Saturday forecast. Precipitation appears to be very light. Nonetheless, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.
IV. The pattern continues to scream and warm and wet next week as a big ole southeast ridge remains in place. This will direct the steering current into the TN and OH Valley regions and multiple waves of rain, occasionally heavy, will result beginning early next week and continuing into the middle and latter portions of the week. Widespread 2″ to 3″ totals with locally heavier amounts seems to be a good bet next week.
V. We note data continues to suggest a colder period looms as we close out the month of February and head into March. Note how the GEFS and EPS continues to tank the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Winter’s not over, not by a long shot…
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A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
Additional rainfall of 1″-1.5″ is likely from Indianapolis and points south and east with this band of rain before drier weather finally works in here this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect continued windy, cold, and raw conditions today as temperatures remain in the 40s this afternoon, including wind chills in the 30s.
We’ll finally get rid of the rain and introduce a drier regime Saturday afternoon into Sunday, including a sunny close to the weekend. With the drier air, overnight lows will fall to frosty levels Sunday and Monday mornings (lower to middle 30s).