Category: First frost

Sep 19

Ready For Fall, Y’all?

Meteorological fall (began September 1st) is running warmer than average across the eastern half of the country.  More specifically, Indianapolis is running 4.8° above average through the period.

The culprit?  A persistent strong eastern ridge (the same ridge that trapped Florence across the Carolinas after she made landfall).

That said, things are changing in significant fashion and these changes will result in much colder conditions as we wrap up the month and open October.

We note the PNA (Pacific North America pattern) trending strongly positive during the period.

A positive PNA typically leads to an eastern trough- especially during the fall months into the spring.  Something like this kind of upper level pattern usually results.

Sure enough, the models are going to this look.

At the surface, the eastern warmth is reversed in a significant fashion with well below average temperatures.  In fact, temperatures will grow cold enough to support high ground snow in the Rockies and northern Great Lakes and the threat of an early frost into the upper Mid West and perhaps portions of the Ohio Valley during the period.

Ah, true pumpkin spice season is right around the corner. 😉

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/19/ready-for-fall-yall/

Oct 25

Wednesday Evening Weather Notebook; Frost On The Pumpkin Tonight…

I.) Frost On The Pumpkin: Skies will clear tonight and winds will go calm.  Chilly high pressure will briefly build over the eastern Ohio Valley and lead to a calmer period of weather overnight into early Thursday morning.  The end result will be the first widespread frost of the season across central Indiana, including many dipping into the lower-to-middle 30s.

II.  Gusty Thursday:  After a cold, calm start to our Thursday, southerly winds will become gusty late in the afternoon.  This is a result of an approaching cold front that will impact the region Friday.

III.  Unseasonably Cold Weekend:  A cold front will pass Friday afternoon and a band of showers will accompany the frontal passage.  Winds will shift to the northwest late in the day and drive in a sharply colder close to the work week.  Air will grow cold enough to potentially support snow to mix in with the rain as precipitation comes to an end.  Additionally, upper level energy and the colder air mass this weekend (the air will have a bite to it) could support mixed rain and snow showers Sunday.  – Novelty stuff only, but those first flakes are always special to see.  Nonetheless, temperatures will run well below normal.  In fact, highs will be closer to our average low temperature this weekend.

IV:  Reinforcing Halloween Chill:  We still stand firm on the idea of warm costumes being required this Halloween as chilly reinforcements blow into town Monday night.  This will result in Halloween featuring a high in the mid to upper 40s with lows Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning dipping to around freezing (upper 20s in outlying areas away from the metro).  Most of Trick-or-treat hours should feature temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/25/wednesday-evening-weather-notebook-frost-on-the-pumpkin-tonight/

Oct 25

Chilly Air Reinforces Itself…

Highlights:

  • Afternoon showers
  • Patchy frost Thursday morning
  • Chilly air reinforcements

Flannel Weather…Late October averages across central Indiana include highs in the lower 60s and lows in the lower 40s.  The balance of this forecast update will include temperatures well below those seasonal norms.  Have the coats, jackets, and flannel 🙂 at the ready!

While early parts of our Wednesday could feature a couple looks at the sun, mostly cloudy conditions will dominate our hump day along with scattered afternoon showers.  Thursday will be a ‘tweener- morning frost will give way to more in the way of sunshine, with an increasingly gusty southwest breeze by the afternoon!

Our next cold front will approach to close the work week.  Showers will spread into the state after a dry start to the day and a cold northwest wind will hit like a wall Friday evening.  Look for a sharply colder close to the day.

A deep trough of low pressure will dominate our weekend, supplying the coldest air so far this season, along with considerable cloudiness. Spokes of upper level energy will rotate overhead and help generate a light shower or two, especially Sunday.  Yes, temperatures will be cold enough to allow for a little snow to mix in as well.

Looking ahead to Halloween- reinforcing chilly air should be spilling south behind a Monday frontal passage and this will set the tone for chilly conditions as the trick-or-treaters take to the streets.  Plan to bundle up!

The 2017-2018 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/25/chilly-air-reinforces-itself/

Oct 24

VIDEO: A MUCH Colder Pattern Is Here; Scattered Snow Showers Sunday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/24/video-a-much-colder-pattern-is-here-scattered-snow-showers-sunday/

Oct 23

Wet Start To The Work Week; Taste Of Winter This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Wet, gloomy open to the work week
  • Dry midweek
  • Much colder this weekend
  • First flakes of the season

Rain Gear Required…Low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes between now and Tuesday morning.  This will result in a wet day, including periods of moderate to heavy rain.  Once the cold front slips through central Indiana, we’ll notice slowly falling temperatures this afternoon.  We’ll throw in a gusty NW breeze tonight into Tuesday with showers and chilly conditions remaining in place.

Drier air will work in for the midweek stretch.  After patchy frost Wednesday, a cool, crisp day is on tap with increasing sunshine.  Thursday will feature strong and gusty southwest winds (gusts over 40 MPH), but dry conditions ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will blow through here Friday with a band of showers and sharply colder air to end the work week.

The air will turn cold enough to end the growing season this weekend across central Indiana.  Additionally, a combination of upper level energy and reinforcing cold air Sunday will interact with the unseasonably warm lake waters to help generate scattered snow showers and flurries.  When we compare this upcoming Sunday to yesterday, it’ll add insult to injury as temperatures will be more than 30° colder…

The 2017-2018 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/23/wet-start-to-the-work-week-taste-of-winter-this-weekend/

Oct 22

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Gives Way To Colder Air…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/22/video-heavy-rain-gives-way-to-colder-air/

Oct 22

So Long Warm Autumn Weather; Colder Changes Ahead This Week…

Highlights:

  • Bye-bye unseasonably warm weather
  • Wet start to the work week
  • Colder times loom

Early Sunday Sun; Rain Increases In Coverage Tonight…The morning is off to a pleasant start, including unseasonably mild conditions and a SW breeze.  Clouds will thicken up this evening and a scattered shower will be possible.  Rain will increase in coverage and intensity tonight into Monday as an area of low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.  Steadiest rain will impact central Indiana Monday morning before diminishing to showers Monday afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will fall into the 50s Monday morning into the afternoon.

A bigger “jab” of chilly air will plunge into the region for midweek.  Considerable cloudiness will accompany the unseasonably chilly conditions, along with a gusty northwest breeze.

As we look ahead towards next weekend, another in a series of cold fronts (get used to that) will eye a Friday evening approach.  Showers will be possible as this front blows through the region.  Sharply colder air looms next weekend.  Frost and freeze conditions will likely develop early next week, along with the first flakes of the season…

The 2017-2018 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/22/so-long-warm-autumn-weather-colder-changes-ahead-this-week/

Oct 18

VIDEO: 6-10 Day Harvest Outlook…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/18/video-6-10-day-harvest-outlook-2/

Oct 03

Bonus Summertime…

Highlights:

  • Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
  • Warm pattern continues
  • Changes loom later next week

Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.  It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend.  At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend.  The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday.  Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.

As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast.  Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.  While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland.  It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Back to the FROPA discussion:  The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week.  The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period.  In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/03/bonus-summertime/

Oct 18

Moderating Trend…

Screen Shot 2015-10-18 at 9.35.16 PMHighlights:

  • Breezy open to the work week
  • Moderating temperatures
  • Weekend rain chances

Two back-to-back freezes were felt across central IN over the weekend, including several reports of middle to upper 20s in neighborhoods away from the city.  As we open the work week, our air flow will shift to the SW and help boost temperatures with wind gusts up to 30 MPH Monday afternoon.  Dry conditions will prevail until Wednesday when an isolated shower/ sprinkle will be possible.

Better rain chances are expected this weekend as a cold front moves in.  Modeling suggests this boundary may be able to tap into just enough Gulf moisture to allow for more widespread rain coverage than what we’ve seen recently.  We’ll keep our fingers crossed.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/18/moderating-trend/

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