Category: First frost

Sep 18

Quiet For Now, But Attention Warranted In The 7-9 Day Window…

The big story in the immediate term is centered squarely on the temperature forecast. Frost Advisories are up for our friends across northern parts of the state, northwestern OH, and into southwestern MI. Even a few folks outside of the city, itself, can expect patchy frost (a few weeks early mind you, and another byproduct of the recent dryness) across central Indiana.

There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the short-term forecast as quiet conditions prevail. High pressure will remain in control for the upcoming work week with slowly moderating temperatures. We’ll go from below, to seasonal, to slightly above normal by week’s end.

The next “problem” arises by next weekend as forecast models sort out what to do with remnant tropical moisture from now TS Beta and an approaching cold front. In this morning’s client video (never posted due to the connectivity issues), we walked through the various solutions. We’ll be “back to normal” from a video perspective late tomorrow and appreciate your patience more than you know.

There’s two windows that are open late next week/ next weekend, including the Deep South and the Ohio Valley dealing with remnant tropical moisture. Given the overall pattern, we favor the southern solution from this distance, but should Beta “dilly dally” in the western Gulf, there will be an opportunity for that next approaching trough to pull that remnant tropical moisture northward into an area desperately needing rainfall. Stay tuned. Interestingly, the European and GFS both agree on the northern trend at 12z.

Notes and Asides: We’ll be back at home base tomorrow night after being down on the Gulf for the past week and will resume normal video production at that point. Despite the quiet times right now, it’ll be interesting to see how things begin to ramp up late next week. Much more later. Have a relaxing Friday evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-for-now-but-attention-warranted-in-the-7-9-day-window/

Sep 16

Another Problem Brought On By Dry Ground…

The upcoming (10) days will offer little, if any, relief from the recent dry stretch. Note the expanding (albeit still localized in the grand scheme of things) area of dry over the past (30) days:

Some areas from south-central IL into central IN have only seen 0.10” to 0.50” over the past month.

While a cold front will slip through the state Thursday, only isolated, weak showers are expected. Most will avoid any rain (best chance of seeing a passing shower will be across northern IN but even these won’t amount to much).

Of more interest will be the true jab of fall air behind the boundary. The dry ground will aid in allowing temperatures to fall to lower levels than if we had recently been dealing with wet conditions. In fact, outlying areas across central and northern parts of the state can expect the first frost of the season (2-3 weeks earlier than average) this weekend into early next week with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 30s.

Quick follow up: Many have asked, and we are safe along the beaches of Walton Co. here in the Florida panhandle. Sally (now a category 2, 100 MPH hurricane) is making landfall near Gulf Shores, AL- 150 mi. to our west. We’ve accumulated over 15” of rain since 12a Tuesday and torrential downpours continue. Early this morning winds have gusted over 60 MPH and water spouts have been observed just off the coast of where we’re staying. As long as we maintain power, we’ll have a fresh video post later today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-problem-brought-on-by-dry-ground/

Oct 15

VIDEO: Rain Develops By Evening; Potential Of Pre-Halloween Snow?

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Oct 14

VIDEO: Frosty Midweek; Colder And Active Stretch Of Weather For Late October?

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Oct 13

Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.

Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.

Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/harvest-19-tis-the-season-for-changeable-weather-patterns/