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Category: European Model
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-quiet-now-but-interesting-times-ahead-next-week/
Nov 29
VIDEO: Heavy Rain Arrives Saturday; Walking Through The 1st Week Of December…
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Nov 27
VIDEO: Winds Slowly Diminish Tonight; Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-winds-slowly-diminish-tonight-unsettled-weather-pattern-continues/
Nov 07
Appetizer To The Main Course…
The cold front that moved through the state today will serve as an “appetizer” to the “main course” early next week. This is rather incredible considering lows tonight will fall into the lower 20s for most of central Indiana with highs Friday only topping out in the lower to middle 30s. Keep in mind averages for this time of year include a low of 38° and high of 56°!
Dry conditions should prevail through the weekend, but a strong early season arctic cold front has its eyes set on the region Sunday night. This front will slide south through the state Monday, but there’s an interesting twist that will take place as it does so. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary and push northeast Monday. This should result in precipitation growing in overall coverage across the region to open the work week. With cold air pressing south at this point in time, the majority of precipitation should fall in the form of snow. While we’re not expecting a major winter storm, this should result in the first widespread measurable snow of the season for central Indiana and our weekend products will begin to include more detailed specifics as time draws closer. (The famous “ridiculously” early call from this distance is for a 1″ to 2″ type event).
With true arctic air pressing south so early in the season, expect heavy lake effect snow in the traditional snow belt communities across northern IN, MI, OH, PA, and NY. (May need a yard stick to measure snow in spots in these areas before the snow guns shut off mid to late next week). Accumulating snow will extend as far south as the southern Appalachians in this pattern Monday night into Tuesday.
The cold will be something to behold on the backside of this arctic boundary. Highs across central Indiana will only top out in the middle to upper 20s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows in the 10° to 15° range. Below zero wind chill values can be expected.
Much more on the cold and snow early next week will come here throughout the weekend. We leave you with one last item of interest- looking ahead to the 2nd half of November…
The latest JMA Weeklies suggest a similar pattern- western ridge with a cold eastern trough.
Time to go ahead and bring out the heavier winter gear with the persistent nature of this pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/appetizer-to-the-main-course/
Nov 05
January-Like Cold Inbound Next Week; What Awaits Thereafter?
“Normals” for January includes highs in the middle 30s and lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s across central Indiana. Early to middle parts of next week are forecast to feature highs in the upper 20s to around 30 and lows in the middle 10s. Yes, these temperatures will challenge records as a truly impressive arctic invasion claims next week’s weather headlines.
A lot of this has to do with the sea surface temperature (SST) configuration across the northern Pacific. We’ve been focusing in on the warmer anomalies across the north and northeastern Pacific and tendency for this to drive a persistent ridge across NW NA since late summer. That persistent NW NA ridge leads to a persistent trough downstream and the associated cold pattern we’re now looking at. As our Winter Outlook suggests, we think this overall pattern repeats itself throughout the majority of the months ahead.
As we look more “immediate term,” what do teleconnections and the MJO tell us about the overall pattern moving past the middle of November? Well, to start, the highly amplified MJO is forecast to roll into Phase 7 around mid-month. This suggests the colder than normal pattern persists.
The EPO is forecast to remain negative while the PNA remains positive into and through the mid month period. Both argue for continued cold.
To no surprise, the latest long range data continues to drill unseasonably cold air south into our portion of the country and a large majority of the eastern portion of the Lower 48 in the Weeks 2-3 time period. Snow opportunities will undoubtedly follow with this kind of pattern.
Buckle up…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-like-cold-inbound-next-week-what-awaits-thereafter/