Nov 08
November is off to a cold start, but a byproduct of the unseasonably cold pattern is a relatively dry one, as well. Brisk southwest winds are blowing this morning and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/08/weekly-outlook-heading-straight-into-winter/
Nov 02
October finished colder than average (-0.8°) and slightly wetter than normal (+0.05″). The full October summary can be found here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=104988&source=0 November has gotten off to a rip-roaring start if…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/02/weekly-outlook-busy-times-in-the-weather-office/
Oct 29
Good afternoon and welcome into IndyWx.com! Here’s a quick video brief concerning the weather situation across central Indiana over the course of the week ahead. By the way, if you’re…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/29/wednesday-evening-video-update-2/
Oct 25
It simply doesn’t get much better than this! Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across central Indiana this afternoon… If you aren’t outside now, we are making it mandatory to get outside upon reading this! 🙂 Enjoy, as the ups and downs of autumn will send us in an opposite direction late in the upcoming week.
Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the evolution of things heading into next weekend. While there are still a couple of important differences between the GFS and European, we’re growing increasingly confident on a much colder feel next weekend.
Note the latest GFS operational run stacked atop individual ensemble members. Needless to say, there’s ensemble support and leads to a higher confidence forecast in the mid range of a deep trough carving itself out across the Mid West and East. Unseasonably cold air would be associated with this.
Meanwhile, the European model is more extreme, suggesting a cut off feature develops across the southeast before helping spawn a Nor Easter and leading to high ground accumulating snows from the southern Appalachians northeast along the spine of the mountains.
Again, there’s ensemble support (left) to go with the operational run (right).
Whether or not we get some sort of cut off low pressure system to really dig in and help generate high ground snow is up for debate and will be the focal point for many for the upcoming week.
Back here on the home front we’re becoming increasingly confident on the first push of wintry type air here next weekend and timing will have to be fine tuned as we move forward, including the all-important Halloween forecast. The type air mass moving in will most likely put an end to the growing season across these parts as it’s likely capable of producing multiple below freezing nights.
Much more in the days ahead! In the meantime, enjoy what we have in front of us now!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/25/the-ups-and-downs-of-autumn/
Oct 09
While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.
Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development). Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night. This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall. Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.
We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/
Sep 22
Perhaps you’ve heard folks discuss the “typhoon rule” over the past few weeks. What I despise is when people take credit for certain ideas without giving credit where credit is…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/22/more-on-the-typhoon-rule/
Sep 16
Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days. Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.
While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday. All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday. All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.
Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near. This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region). 
While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.
The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week. The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place. 
Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week. Keep those jackets handy. Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday). Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/16/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening/
Sep 02
I was out and about earlier today and taking note that local lawns are much greener than they typically have been over the past few years by early September. We can thank recent rains and warmth, but it’s been a wet year, overall, to date. Think back to all of the winter snows and then add the copious spring and summer rains. The end result so far? 2014 is running close to 2″ above normal precipitation at IND.
Overnight rains went close to forecast. We picked up 1″ on the dot in the city, including northern ‘burbs. (IndyWx.com HQ in southern Boone County also picked up 1″). Heavier rains and localized flash flooding took place down state.
A look at today’s rainfall:
Moving forward, the pattern over the upcoming (2) weeks appears wetter than normal.
In the shorter term, the GFS and Canadian paint a wet picture out by Days 7-10 (BTW- the European agrees).
Modeling suggests 2-3″ type rainfall is possible over the upcoming 7-10 day period. A transient pattern can be thanked for the overall wet forecast.
The CFSv2 also suggests precipitation runs 150%-200% of normal levels through mid September.
As harvest begins across some Hoosier farm lands, note the increased wetness in the pattern through the upcoming 14 days, or so.
The region will remain in an active pattern through the next couple weeks, at least, as we lie in the battle ground between a stubborn southeastern ridge and an increasingly active early fall northern stream. A wetter than normal mid west will ensue…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/02/wet-pattern-looks-to-continue-into-mid-month/
Aug 22
As we move through the next week, we continue to think we’ll cool things off as we wrap up August. We’re not talking about any sort of major unseasonably cool…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/22/cooler-to-open-september/
Aug 05
This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week. Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.
The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/tuesday-afternoon-video-update-closer-look-at-friday/