Category: European Model

Jul 29

Weekend Rain Chatter…

Before we dig in further around our complex weekend setup, we’ll have our official August Outlook posted later this evening. All in all, we don’t have any changes to our early ideas, but will have the complete discussion posted a bit later today.

We have one more very pleasant and refreshing (by late-July standards) day dialed up before the pattern turns more hectic to close the work week and head into the weekend.

As we move into Thursday, a cold front will drift south into central Indiana. This will serve as the focal point for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms, even as early as tomorrow morning, but more so during the afternoon and evening. We expect 50-60% coverage of rain on Thursday.

Note how the boundary sinks south Thursday night and Friday morning. This should result in drier conditions Friday as the north and northeasterly wind takes hold. As it is, we’ll forecast a partly to mostly cloudy sky Friday with most, if not all, of central Indiana remaining dry.

As all of this is taking shape, surface low pressure is expected to begin strengthening in northeast OK Friday morning. This area of low pressure will then ride the boundary east, northeast into the weekend. That’s where things begin to get a bit more tricky. Some of the data brings the front back north over the weekend (subsequently allowing this area of low pressure to track further north over IN). Other data keeps the low just to our south and east. Despite the disagreement amongst model data, we’ll remain consistent with our forecast of more widespread, more concentrated rain returning to central Indiana Saturday afternoon into Sunday. We still think this time period will produce between 1″ and 1.5″ of rain for most of the region.

Showers and embedded thunder, along with unusually cool temperatures would continue into early parts of next week with this pattern.

Despite some of the differences within the operational guidance, the GFS and European ensemble mean, both suggest wet times are ahead for our area during the aforementioned period.

Make it a great Wednesday! More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/29/weekend-rain-chatter/

Jul 28

VIDEO: Messy Weekend On Deck; Cooler Than Normal Open To August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/28/video-messy-weekend-on-deck-cooler-than-normal-open-to-august/

Jul 27

VIDEO: Storms This Afternoon; Potential Heavy Rain Maker Late Week?

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Jul 24

Long Range Update; Initial August Forecast…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/24/long-range-update-initial-august-forecast/

Jul 16

Thursday Evening Long Range Update: Late Summer And Early Autumn Pattern On The Horizon…

As we traverse the “dog days” of summer and look ahead to early autumn, what does the overall pattern hold? As is typical this time of year, the tropics are on the verge of becoming much more active, as well. Given analogs and other drivers, we suggest those with plans to the Gulf or Carolina beaches pay particularly close attention to the developments in the coming weeks and couple of months ahead.

The short-term is, obviously, highlighted by unseasonably warm-hot conditions but there’s reason to buy into the ‘mean’ ridge position retrograding west prior to month’s end. The large majority of long range data shows this taking place, as well.

Note the way the new European Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and JMA Weeklies handle this evolution in similar fashion over the coming 2-3 weeks.

European Weeklies: July 26-31
European Weeklies: July 30-Aug 4
European Weeklies: Aug 8-Aug 13
CFSv2 Weeklies: July 21-31
CFSv2 Weeklies: July 26-Aug 5
CFSv2 Weeklies: July 31-Aug 10
JMA Weeklies: July 19-25
JMA Weeklies: July 26-Aug 2

The screaming message is that the period of heat this weekend into early next week will transition west by the 2nd half of next week and into the Week 2 time period. Furthermore, though not saying there can’t be periods of “transient” heat still yet the remainder of the summer, the bulk of the sustained heat should be behind us once to the middle of next week.

Additionally, data is bullish on a wet close to July. This makes sense with the northwest flow aloft.

As the crucial late-summer stretch hits and harvest season is on the horizon, there’s reason to believe a favorable precipitation pattern should persist- if not potentially a bit wetter than normal. The wildcard, of course, as is typically the case has to do with the tropics. It only takes 1 or 2 tropical systems with the “right” inland track to provide heavy rains into the inland regions and there’s many reasons to buy into the fact this will be quite a busy “heart” of the tropical season this year. We’ll have to handle those as they come, as the steering currents can vary in significant fashion and there’s no way to accurately pinpoint inland areas most at risk of late-summer/ early fall heavy rain events from these tropical threats. Certainly, if your plans take you down to the beautiful Gulf Coast or Carolina beaches, it’ll be important to pay close attention to the developments and goings on as the season matures…

Stay tuned as we continue to move forward. In addition to our August Outlook, we’ll have more on where we believe the pattern is heading this fall and winter in the coming weeks…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/16/thursday-evening-long-range-update-late-summer-and-early-autumn-pattern-on-the-horizon/

Jul 09

Long Range Update Into Early August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/09/long-range-update-into-early-august/

Jul 01

VIDEO: Extended Period Of Excessive Heat Awaits…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/01/video-extended-period-of-excessive-heat-awaits/

Jun 02

VIDEO: Monitoring Storm Potential Wednesday; Updated Summer Thoughts…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/02/video-monitoring-storm-potential-wednesday-updated-summer-thoughts/

May 28

Thursday Morning Rambles: Tropical Air Gets The Boot; Eyeing A Warm Stretch Of Weather Through The 1st Half Of June?

Our short-term weather pattern will be dominated by an upper level low (this morning) and a cold front (tomorrow). High pressure will build into the region over the weekend and help supply gorgeous conditions.

The best opportunity for widespread rain over the next week will take place today as the upper low impacts the region. With a tropical airmass in place, this feature will be able to produce a good soaking for most of central Indiana. Widespread moderate rain this morning will continue for the next few hours before being replaced with more scattered activity during the afternoon/ evening.

Most central Indiana neighborhoods can expect an inch of rain today with locally heavier totals.

The next feature we’ll contend with is the cold front itself and it’s still slated for a Friday passage. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible ahead of the boundary but coverage shouldn’t be nearly as widespread as what we’re seeing this morning. Once the front blows through tomorrow afternoon, much drier and cooler air will arrive and stick around for a few days.

Cool and refreshing Canadian air will arrive just in time for the weekend.

Dry conditions will stick around through the weekend and into early next week to result in perfect weather to get some of those outdoor chores knocked out before the warm, muggy stuff returns.

Speaking of that, as we look ahead, we’ll replace the refreshing air with a return of warmth and humidity during the 2nd half of next week. Note how the European ensemble shows the transition.

The JMA Weeklies (fresh in this morning) also show the warmth that looms through the better part of the 1st half of June.

We’ll have to keep close tabs on exactly where the upper level ridge sets up in the Week 2 time period. This will mean the difference between “splash and dash” storm coverage as the mugginess returns vs. more widespread, organized activity in what would be a northwest flow around the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/28/thursday-morning-rambles-tropical-air-gets-the-boot-eyeing-a-warm-stretch-of-weather-through-the-1st-half-of-june/

May 24

VIDEO: Warm And Humid Memorial Day Weekend; Timing Out Features Into Mid-June…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/video-warm-and-humid-memorial-day-weekend-timing-out-features-into-mid-june/

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