Updated 07.26.21 @ 8a
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Category: EPO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-targeting-an-unseasonably-cool-open-to-august/
Jul 22
Long Range Update: Window Closes Almost As Soon As It Opens For Period Of Hotter Weather…
Updated 07.22.21 @ 7:35a
We’re in the midst of the “dog days,” however Summer ’21 has been anything but hot around these parts. July is running 2° below normal, month-to-date, and stretches of hotter weather have been transitional at best.
While the upcoming 6-10 days, as a whole, will offer up an opportunity for heat to build east, we don’t believe this hotter stretch will have staying power as we get deeper into August. Here’s why:
EPO: Note the rather dramatic reversal forecast over the upcoming couple of weeks. We go from a strong positive (now) to a strongly negative EPO state to close out July and open August. While there’s lag here (hence, the hotter days won’t arrive in earnest until early next week), the negative trend to open August will likely drive significant cooling from the Plains and into the Ohio Valley as we move through the first 10 days, or so, of the month.
MJO: While there are several questions pertaining to what phases the MJO will “camp out” in August, one thing that seems to be becoming clear is that we aren’t going to get stuck in the hot phases. Depending on if we recycle or head into the null phase, it sure seems like the MJO will favor the seasonable to cooler than normal phases through the bulk of the month.
Wet Ground: Long-time viewers of IndyWx.com know that we lean heavily on the precipitation pattern from May through July to at least serve as an ingredient in building our August forecast. Drier stretches of weather during these months can really “feedback” this time of year and serve to lead to hot closes to meteorological summer and open to meteorological fall. While it’s not the be all, end all, the opposite can usually be said for wetter years.
While August, has a whole, has a cooler than normal look to it, the upcoming 6-10 days will feature true summer heat as the ridge temporarily builds east. Several days next week will likely top out in the 90° to 92° range with plenty of humidity.
The feeling here though is that the ridge will pull back and open the window up for cooler (relative to normal), more unsettled weather to return as we get through the first full week of August. In fact, note how the latest longer range guidance is already loading up on the precipitation for the remainder of summer.
Our complete August Outlook will be out next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-window-closes-almost-as-soon-as-it-opens-for-period-of-hotter-weather/
Jul 19
VIDEO: Gorgeous Open To The Work Week; Storm Chances Return Midweek And Beyond…
Updated 07.19.21 @ 7:37a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-gorgeous-open-to-the-work-week-storm-chances-return-midweek-and-beyond/
Jul 12
VIDEO: Storms With Locally Heavy Rain Fire Back Up; Pattern Drivers Over The Next Couple Weeks…
Updated 07.12.21 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-storms-with-locally-heavy-rain-fire-back-up-pattern-drivers-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Jul 05
More On The July Pattern…
Updated 07.05.21 @ 9:08a
In case you missed it, our complete July Outlook can be found here.
The EPO (big teleconnection “driver” this time of year) is forecast to pop positive in the short-term before heading back negative mid and late month.
Simply going off of that, one could build a case of warmth returning in the short term but that it would have a hard time sustaining itself. Relative to normals, this has been the story summer-to-date.
The other key to the longer range pattern has to do with the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation.
Guidance suggests we’re going to move into Phases 3, 4, and 5 over the coming couple of weeks. The end result would be a continuation of active times (noted from the precipitation correlation below) before drying things out a bit in Phase 5. Similar to what the EPO is perhaps trying to tell us above, sustained heat would be hard to come by, relative to normal. All-in-all, it’s a very transient looking pattern.
When we look at computer model guidance over the next couple of weeks, the upper pattern features a predominant ridge across the West. There’s also more persistent ridging across the Northeast. In between, there’s a “weakness” and tendency for at least more of a “troughy” look in the central.
While we’ll have a couple of days here and there of hotter, more humid weather, these conditions won’t have the staying power our friends to our northeast and west will experience. In general, things should balance out very near seasonal levels.
Guidance remains quite bullish on precipitation, painting above normal rainfall through the central and a good chunk of the eastern parts of the country.
Speaking of rain, chances of rain and storms will return Wednesday as our next system approaches. Better chances of more widespread rain can be expected by the weekend. Our video discussions will handle these features and more.
Enjoy your Monday!
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