Updated 11.24.22 @ 9a
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Category: EPO
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Nov 21
Thanksgiving Storm System And December Pattern Rambles…
Updated 11.21.22 @ 6:37p
It only took a week to 10 days, but model guidance is FINALLY starting to align on our Thanksgiving storm, and it’s for a more drawn out period of wet, unsettled weather through the Thanksgiving weekend. We still believe clouds will increase through the day on Thanksgiving with light rain moving into central Indiana Thursday evening/ night. The initial surge of moisture should move out of the area early on Black Friday. Early thoughts are for this lead wave to deposit between 0.10″ and 0.25″ for most.
Most, if not all, of our Black Friday and through the daytime Saturday currently looks on the dry side. While we’ll still have considerable cloudiness, the next round of moisture (this of a much heavier variety) is dialed up Saturday evening into Sunday as a surface low moves from the Ark-la-tex region, northeast into the central and eastern Ohio Valley. A 1″ to 2″ soaker appears in order from a standpoint of total rain with this system.
Once the system departs to the northeast, unlike the past couple of events, milder air will take hold to close November and open December. In fact, multiple days with highs into the 60s are a good bet 12/1 through 12/5.
In the face of the warm open to the month, there’s no flinching in our long standing idea of an overall colder/ snowier than normal December, locally. We note the EPO is forecast negative down the road and combine this with what continues to look like a favorable (at least if you’re a winter fan) MJO, the thought here remains squarely on the return of colder, more wintry times after the first few days of the month…
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Nov 17
Long Winded Long Range Update And Looking Over The Latest Data For Thanksgiving…
Updated 11.17.22 @ 8p
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Nov 15
VIDEO: Short-Term Snow Update; Pattern Drivers That Should Dominate The Bulk Of This Year’s Holiday Season…
Updated 11.15.22 @ 7:43a
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Nov 10
Long Range Outlook: Jab, Jab, Boom?
Updated 11.10.22 @ 9:18a
After a warm open to November, things are progressing to plan as our much anticipated mid month shift to cold takes place.
A quick glance at the teleconnections over the course of the next couple weeks (remember, we still lean heaviest on the PNA and EPO at this time of the year) reveals agreement in the short term of the cold shift but note movement back towards neutral towards the end of the period.
While this may give reason for panic to some, we note the MJO scheduled to move out of Phase 8 (currently), whip across the “null” phase before moving into textbook phases for eastern cold for late November (Phases 5-6).
The analogs for such phases this time of year will make winter weather fans salivate.
Despite this setup laid out above, the new JMA Weeklies want none of my idea of a cold start to December. Despite the chilly look Weeks 1-2, the model rolls right into an eastern ridge by early December. It’s safe to say as of now, I remain in the cold camp, especially given what the MJO amplitude should provide as we rumble into the last month of the year. Nonetheless, it’s less than ideal to see a normally trusted model in such disagreement and we’ll have to keep an eye on trends over the course of the next couple weeks…
Perhaps the model is seeing a transitional move through Phase 7? That would allow a milder pattern in briefly, but again I would reiterate the look of what should be an amplified MJO as we move into December and a jaunt through Phase 8, 1, and 2 is likely in my opinion. Just for fun, this is what those phases provide.
One way or another, we have a lot of work (and fun) ahead. My hunch tells me any long range (what would currently be Week 4 in particular) data will be forced to cool, and perhaps significantly so, as time draws closer.
In the meantime, don’t sleep on next week. There should be at least one attempt for some sort of winter weather maker into the Ohio Valley, if not two.
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