Updated 02.24.23 @ 6a
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Feb 24
Updated 02.24.23 @ 6a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-prolonged-period-of-unseasonably-cold-active-weather-on-deck/
Feb 16
Updated 02.16.23 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-strong-storms-downstate-this-afternoon-longer-range-musings/
Feb 09
Updated 02.09.23 @ 8:53p
After a bitter Christmas period, the “snap back” came on with authority. The mild start to the year has carried into February. A look at the past (30) days:
Despite multiple attempts, the cold “jabs” haven’t had any staying power. In the short term (upcoming 10-14 days), an overall milder than normal regime will carry the day.
With that said, longer range teleconnections are providing clues that the pattern may, indeed, begin to resemble a more sustained colder than normal temperature regime by late February, continuing through the bulk of March:
Negative NAO:
Negative WPO:
Negative AO:
Negative EPO:
Then, perhaps most significant, the MJO is showing signs of cycling in Phase 8 to close February and open March.
Both periods feature a cold, to much colder than normal, pattern in Phase 8:
MJO Phase 8: Feb
MJO Phase 8: March
Perhaps the latest European Weeklies for late Feb through late March are onto the correct idea…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mjo-and-other-drivers-aligning-for-cold-close-to-meteorological-winter-open-to-spring/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.23 @ 10:57a
We still need to watch the leader-follower setup mid and late week. While an overall warmer than normal pattern will carry the day through mid month, there can still be periodic opportunities for wintry “mischief” despite the mild time of things as a whole. Perhaps more interesting though is what is happening behind the scenes now to potentially drive a more dramatic pattern reversal later this month.
We note the MJO is forecast to roll into Phase 8 just before the 20th.
This is not only a much colder phase, but also an active (stormy) phase, as well.
Note the high latitude blocking in place on the analog composite above. Also of note, forecast model trends are taking the EPO negative slowly but surely once past mid-February.
Call here is for a colder than normal pattern to return for the last week of the month and through at least the first week of March, but time will tell. In the meantime, we’ll pay close attention to the 12z guidance today on mid and late week and update again either late this evening or early Monday morning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/plot-continues-to-thicken-late-month-and-early-march/
Feb 01
Updated 02.01.23 @ 6:04p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-spring-tease-into-mid-february-but-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-as-late-february-and-march-nears/