Updated 11.14.23 @ 6:45a
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Category: EPO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-colder-late-month-changes/
Nov 12
Sunday Morning Rambles: Thanksgiving Week Continues To Trend Active…
Updated 11.12.23 @ 11:13a
As quiet as this week will be, overall, it continues to look like Thanksgiving week won’t provide the same fortune. As mentioned yesterday, there’s no reason to waste time describing the day to day “rinse and repeat” regime up until Thursday. That’s when a frontal boundary will sweep through the Ohio Valley with gusty winds (30-40 MPH) and an opportunity of showers Thursday night into Friday. Moisture return continues to look unimpressive. Best chances of measurable rain (0.10” – 0.25”) will come from Indianapolis and points east during this timeframe.
The next couple weeks will run milder to much milder than normal.
Week 1
Week 2
The quiet week we will enjoy this week will be replaced with a much more active time of things in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Look for a potentially potent and large scale storm system impacting our weather with rain and gusty winds early to mid next week. Note the significant change between Week 1 and Week 2 precipitation below. More details to come as we go through this week.
We watch the EPO trends closely for the threat of potentially colder changes longer term.
Until the PNA and MJO follow suit, “tread with caution” on any wholesale big colder shifts. All in all, this predominant regime should hold firm into the 1st half of December.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-thanksgiving-week-continues-to-trend-active/
Nov 07
An Overall Warm Ride Into The Thanksgiving Holiday; Any Changes On The Horizon?
Updated 11.07.23 @ 5:15a
Despite a weekend setback that will continue into the early portion of Week 2, updated forecast model data continues to scream that we’ll run above to well above normal as the Thanksgiving holiday nears.
The pattern drivers support the warmer than normal call over the next couple of days. Note the primarily positive EPO and negative PNA.
This should help keep the ‘mean’ ridge position across the upper Mid West and Great Lakes over the next couple of weeks.
We’ll keep close eyes on the negative trend of that EPO towards the end of the period (image 1 above) to see if it continues in the coming days. If so, there’s the potential we could pull the anticipated western trough east in perhaps a bit quicker fashion than models currently see (say the last week of November, potentially).
As it is, another big pattern driver, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will begin to rev up in the coming days. A circle through Phase 7/8 this time of year supports the warm signals shown from the PNA and EPO.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/an-overall-warm-ride-into-the-thanksgiving-holiday-any-changes-on-the-horizon/
Nov 02
LR Update: Looking Ahead Towards Thanksgiving…
Updated 11.02.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-looking-ahead-towards-thanksgiving/
Oct 28
VIDEO: 2 Rounds Of Heavier Rain On Deck; 1st Flakes Of The Season Await…
Updated 10.28.23 @ 9:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-2-rounds-of-heavier-rain-on-deck-1st-flakes-of-the-season-await/