Dec 07
It’s not that there isn’t any cold to speak of, but instead the lack of sustained chill moving ahead. This morning, we discuss why we believe that is with the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/07/video-not-that-there-isnt-chill-available-but-sustainability-is-severely-lacking-we-explain-why/
Dec 04
Quiet weather continues for now. We look ahead to our next storm system as well as the longer range pattern drivers in this morning’s video update…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/04/video-timing-out-the-arrival-of-our-next-storm-reviewing-the-pattern-drivers-into-mid-late-month/
Nov 24
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/24/evening-client-video-update-couple-of-strong-storms-tomorrow-evening-stage-set-for-a-major-winter-event-sunday-monday/
Nov 24
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/24/video-strong-storm-potential-tomorrow-afternoon-in-depth-december-pattern-breakdown/
Nov 23
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/23/video-timing-out-multiple-storm-systems-between-now-and-early-december/
Nov 21
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/21/video-certainly-isnt-a-boring-pattern-to-close-november-and-open-december/
Nov 18
As Thanksgiving and the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears, the weather pattern sure appears as if it’ll become a bit more hectic and busy in nature. In the short-term, we’re forecasting another significant wind event Thursday. While likely not to the magnitude of what we saw across central IN last Sunday, sustained southwest winds of 20-25 MPH will develop Thursday with gusts approaching 50 MPH.
That leads us to Friday and the upcoming weekend. While most of the day Friday will be rain-free, we’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by afternoon and evening and light rain will eventually follow. This has to do with a “wavy” frontal boundary that will be draped across the central Ohio Valley. It was only a couple of days ago where most modeling pegged this frontal boundary to lie across the southern Great Lakes region (which would’ve led to a warmer and drier weekend, locally). Alas, we can expect periods of light rain and chilly weather Saturday with heavier, steadier rain arriving Sunday as the cold front sweeps through the region. Drier and cooler air will then filter into the region as we progress through the early parts of Thanksgiving week, itself.
Model data agrees that between 1″ and 1.3″ of rain will fall across immediate central Indiana with this event (total between Friday night and Sunday). Officially, on a broader scale, we’ll forecast 0.75″ to 1.25″ with locally heavier amounts possible.
After a quieter couple of days to open Thanksgiving week, itself, we’re tracking 2 additional storms next week. The first will likely arrive Wednesday with gusty showers and blustery conditions.
The 2nd storm system will blow into town Friday and Saturday. The trade-off in between, if we’re lucky, will be a pleasant (seasonably cool and dry) Thanksgiving holiday.
To no surprise, the European ensemble sees a wetter than normal close to the month upcoming, including a good chunk of the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and East Coast.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/18/tracking-multiple-storm-systems-between-now-and-months-end/
Nov 12
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/12/coming-to-a-fork-in-the-road-long-winded-discussion-where-the-pattern-is-headed-late-nov-and-dec/
Nov 10
Our long standing November Outlook was for a chilly first couple days of the month followed by a prolonged period of transitional weather that eventually gave way to more cold around Thanksgiving. Admittedly, we didn’t think the stretch of warmth we’re now exiting would be as significant. While on the surface the longer range doesn’t appear to offer up much hope for significant chill, we continue to keep a close eye on the potential of a more sustained chilly pattern developing by late month.
First, let’s take a look at the latest teleconnections:
As has been the case of late, these are mostly aligned (all with the exception of the EPO briefly) in a manner that will make it tough to drive any sort of sustained chill through the next couple of weeks.
As such, the latest longer range data shows an overall seasonal to warmer than normal pattern continuing as Thanksgiving approaches, centered over the Plains.
This is a bit intriguing as the model is “trying” to see cooler anomalies along the eastern seaboard in the Week 2 timeframe. What’s even more interesting is the higher heights in Canada that develop in the Day 10-15 time frame. Note the dramatic difference between now and then.
That was the basis of our late November forecast (high latitude blocking and subsequent negative AO developing that would force the colder air south). While the teleconnections don’t support that as of yet, one of two things will happen in the coming couple weeks: 1.) the teleconnections will have to adjust or 2.) the model will be incorrect in showing the Canadian ridge developing.
That brings us to the MJO. Just after the 15th, guidance takes things into Phase 2. That phase in November favors colder than normal weather across the eastern 1/3 of the country, including right here on the home front.
Perhaps the longer range European ensemble is beginning to see this and will expand the chill in the coming 10 days, or so. One thing’s for sure, we’ll be here to keep a close eye on the developments and update accordingly. From this distance, I wouldn’t throw in the towel on the potential of a colder pattern developing late month. I know we’re not.
More later this evening, including the daily video update that will take a closer look at rain and embedded thunder tonight.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/10/all-hopes-lost-for-colder-weather-around-thanksgiving-not-so-fast-my-friend/
Nov 06
The unseasonable warmth won’t last, at least not to this magnitude, but an overall warmer than average pattern should persist over the upcoming couple of weeks.
The teleconnections (positive AO, positive EPO, negative PNA) are aligned in a manner that will drive the ‘mean’ ridge position across the eastern portion of the country.
Subsequently, the warmth, relative to normal, remains locked in over the East through mid month. Note how similar the GEFS and EPS are between Week 1 and Week 2.
Though we will cool off behind the passage of a cold front next week, we’re still running above normal into Week 2.
We’re not ready to throw in the towel on the idea we could be looking at a more wholesale pattern shift late month. The MJO supports that idea. Note Phase 2 this time of year favors the chill to settle into the East.
It’ll be an interesting test case in what otherwise looks to be a mild to much milder than normal (and quiet) pattern.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/06/the-beat-goes-on-for-now/