Category: Ensemble Discussion

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Oct 03

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

• Filed under AG Report, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Rain, Unseasonably Warm

• October 3, 2021

Updated 10.03.21 @ 11a

Forecast Period: 10.03.21 through 10.10.21

A stubborn cut off low pressure system will keep things unsettled around these parts for a good chunk of the forecast period. It certainly won’t rain the entire period, but compared to the past couple of weeks, most will notice a drastic difference in the wetter conditions. We think greatest coverage of rain will come today and midweek. By this time next week, most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to tack on an additional 0.50″ to 1″ of rain with locally heavier totals.

The other big story by late in the week will be an expanding ridge of high pressure. This will keep our region well above normal from a temperature perspective, including the likelihood of multiple days of 80°+ in the 6-10 day stretch. This will be driven by a strongly negative PNA and positive EPO and is supported by October La Ninas from the past (analogs). The persistent warmer than normal regime shouldn’t really go anywhere in the longer range. It’s not until we get to the 2nd half of November (and beyond) when we believe a more profound shift to more persistent cold lurks.

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