Category: Ensemble Discussion

Long Range Update: Colder Than Average Close To January; Looking Ahead To Early February…

Updated 01.14.22 @ 7a

The primary driver (the Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO) will be in a favorable phase to allow colder than average temperatures to take up residence across the eastern part of the country as we close out January. To no surprise, these particular phases favor positive heights over the high latitudes (blocking) which helps drive more of a persistent colder than normal pattern.

We’ll keep an eye if the MJO gets stuck in the neutral phase, but the “loop” around into Phase 6 this time of year would continue to favor cooler (to colder) than normal conditions across our portion of the country.

That brings us to our teleconnections. The “big 3” (this time of year include the AO, EPO, and PNA) are also all in favorable position to deliver a colder than normal pattern to close January.


One could also build a case that February would at least open colder than normal based off a combo of the above (MJO and teleconnections) and we agree with that idea, but do believe a “flip” in the regime is ahead after the first week, or so, of the month to milder times.

To no surprise, modeling is showing this cold close to the month.

The opportunity is present for Week 2 to be bitterly cold, as the European is hinting above. Sub-zero temperatures are on the table, especially if we can get some snow down.

Speaking of snow, this pattern should produce a couple opportunities for central Indiana to get in on the act before the end of the month, or beginning of February. Despite the incredibly slow start to the season, take any one particular solution with a grain of salt when looking at operational guidance 2 weeks out.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/14/long-range-update-colder-than-average-close-to-january-looking-ahead-to-early-february/

VIDEO: Significant Weekend Questions; Bullish On A Very Cold Close To January…

Updated 01.12.22 @ 7:23a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/12/video-significant-weekend-questions-bullish-on-a-very-cold-close-to-january/

VIDEO: Cold Open To January; Tracking A Couple Of Moisture-Starved Systems, Locally…

Updated 01.11.22 @ 7:30a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/11/video-cold-open-to-january-tracking-a-couple-of-moisture-starved-systems-locally/

VIDEO: Cold Open To The Work Week; Wintry Pattern Evolution Into The 2nd Half Of January…

Updated 01.10.22 @ 7:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/10/video-cold-open-to-the-work-week-wintry-pattern-evolution-into-the-2nd-half-of-january/

VIDEO: Sunshine Returns To Open The Work Week, But So Do Bitterly Cold Conditions…

Updated 01.09.22 @ 8:30a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/09/video-sunshine-returns-to-open-the-work-week-but-so-do-bitterly-cold-conditions/

VIDEO: Frigid Close To The Work Week; Interesting Pattern Setting Up For The 2nd Half Of January…

Updated 01.07.22 @ 7:33a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/07/video-frigid-close-to-the-work-week-interesting-pattern-setting-up-for-the-2nd-half-of-january/

VIDEO: Double Shot Of Arctic Love Heading Our Way; Long Range Update Into Late January…

Updated 01.06.22 @ 7:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/06/video-double-shot-of-arctic-love-heading-our-way-long-range-update-into-late-january/

VIDEO: Keeping Close Eyes On Thursday…

Updated 01.03.22 @ 7:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/03/video-keeping-close-eyes-on-thursday/

VIDEO: Changeable Conditions As We Open 2022…

Updated 12.31.21 @ 8a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/31/video-changeable-conditions-as-we-open-2022/

VIDEO: More Significant Storm As We Usher In The New Year; Long Range Update…

Updated 12.30.21 @ 8a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/30/video-more-significant-storm-as-we-usher-in-the-new-year-long-range-update/

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