Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.
A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.
More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:
Updated 02.14.24 @ 7:51a Plentiful sunshine will be with us as we move through our Valentine’s Day along with unseasonably mild temperatures. A brief “jab” of arctic air will be…
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Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…
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I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.
Monday night’s system has trended further south today.
While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.
In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.
Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!
Updated 02.10.24 @ 12p We continue to monitor the opportunity for the threat of accumulating wet snow across southern Indiana Monday evening and Monday night. This afternoon’s video has some…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/10/video-prospects-of-accumulating-wet-snow-across-southern-indiana-on-the-rise-monday-evening-night/
Today’s midday computer guidance is trending more bullish for trailing energy to deliver heavier precipitation across central IN and the Ohio Valley. While there are many more questions than answers with respect to precipitation type, confidence is increasing significantly that a period of more significant precipitation will come at us in (2) waves this weekend into early next week: Saturday and again Monday.
Today’s ensemble guidance (12z total precipitation GEFS and EPS shown below) is showing a northward adjustment in more significant moisture into the Ohio Valley over the weekend into early next week.
We’ll continue to closely monitor the trends over the next couple of days but as of now, we feel confident enough to hit the prospects of rain harder Saturday (still nothing overly heavy but certainly more than guidance suggested over the past few days) and another period of widespread precipitation to open the new work week on Monday. As colder air works into the region over the weekend, this secondary wave of moisture may feature more in the way of wintry conditions across at least a portion of the area. Far too early for specifics beyond this overall idea for this time period, but should wet snow work into the picture for some, the recent warm ground and marginal temperatures would likely limit pavement impacts. As colder air becomes more significant and entrenched down the road, winter weather headlines will likely become more frequent late Feb into March…
Updated 02.07.24 @ 7:21a A strong southerly flow will help pull up unseasonably mild air into the region as we close the work week. Highs will flirt with 60° Thursday…
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We’re pushing 6 days now since our last measurable precipitation and that unusually calm, boring stretch of weather will continue for a couple more days. Despite some low clouds at times, expect our quiet and unseasonably mild weather pattern to continue. A late week frontal passage (FROPA) will pull a true taste of spring north into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. We still don’t anticipate this being a significant precipitation maker for central Indiana.
A secondary (much stronger) low pressure system will ride along this pressing boundary and impact areas to our east (and south) with heavier precipitation over the weekend into early next week. The southern Appalachians once again may “cash in” on a hefty snow event.
This more active period comes as a wholesale pattern change gets underway with a significantly colder air mass aimed to overwhelm much of the Lower 48 as we push into next week.
We note longer range models showing cross polar flow setting up late February. To no surprise, the ante is upped for the threat of a period of significant cold prior to month’s end.
We’ll watch for the threat of new winter weather opportunities to emerge during this colder pattern down the road.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/06/tuesday-morning-rambles-opportunity-for-cross-polar-flow-late-month-and-looking-ahead-to-a-renewed-active-pattern/
Updated 02.05.24 @ 7:30a This week will be about as quiet and mild as it gets around these parts for early-February. Enjoy, friends. A weak frontal boundary will slip through…
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The coming pattern change back to cold has been long advertised and fits the overall theme of El Nino winters. The question now centers squarely on not “if” the cold is going to return, but just “how” cold will it get? Should we spend time in Phase 8 then the door opens for another opportunity to rival the magnitude of cold we saw in January. The strongly negative AO and NAO argues for pronounced high latitude blocking to develop yet again, and likely with more staying power than our January blocking episode.
500mb pattern Feb. 10 – Mar. 10
But enough about the return of below normal temperatures. What is the longer range guidance suggesting as far as the overall precipitation pattern goes? During the pattern “transition state” (late week into Week 2), we favor a more active precipitation pattern as at least (2) more organized storm systems should roll through the Ohio Valley. Specifically, we’re targeting a system 2/8 into 2/9 followed by a more organized and heavier precipitation maker in the 2/11 -2/13 timeframe.
Beyond mid-month, the majority of extended, long range forecast models highlight a drier than normal pattern returning to the picture. This is forecast to continue into the 1st half of March. A more active (wet) pattern is forecast for the Southeast. Not shocking, especially given the anticipated colder than normal regime.
This doesn’t mean snowfall will run below average, but it’s also impossible to get specific with winter storm potential more than a week out. While we’ll keep an eye on next weekend, the threat of winter weather potential will increase through the 2nd half of the month and into the 1st half of March with the colder pattern returning. The latest ensemble guidance is bullish on a snow pattern emerging during that time period.
Perhaps we’re gearing up for a busy 2nd half of the season?
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/04/we-know-the-cold-is-set-to-return-but-what-about-the-precipitation-pattern-mid-feb-into-mid-march/
