Category: Ensemble Discussion

Updated 03.12.22 @ 8:36a

While we’re waking up to absolutely bitter conditions this morning (especially by mid-March standards), a significant pattern change awaits this week. Temperatures this morning are deep into the 10s and include ‘chills in the subzero category.

Most across central Indiana will struggle to make it above the freezing mark today, but have no fear. Strong moderation kicks into high gear for the 2nd half of the weekend. That will lay the groundwork for our trend in the week ahead. Ridging will expand across the eastern portion of the country and result in temperatures climbing into the upper 60s by midweek.

Aside from a couple light showers Tuesday, our weather conditions look rather uneventful until late next week when a more organized storm will push better rain chances into our picture to close out the work week.

Looking ahead, you can begin seeing the reflection in the European ensemble (above) of a central and eastern trough developing, yet again, as we get set to close out March. This is likely a byproduct of an expected negative EPO and NAO late month and reason to tap the brakes on any idea of a “stick and hold” spring pattern just yet.

The idea here is that we close things out this month on a chillier and wetter note (compared to normal) and should watch for the potential of anomalies to grow even colder as we go through time- especially if we drive that NAO and EPO even deeper into the negative territory.