Updated 04.10.22 @ 9:13a
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Category: Ensemble Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/10/video-gorgeous-2nd-half-of-the-weekend-rain-and-storm-chances-return-monday-unseasonably-cold-week-2-ahead/
Apr 09
VIDEO: Stunner Of A Sunday Dialed Up; Timing Out Rain And Storm Chances In The Week Ahead, And Looking At Another Shot Of Winter-Like Conditions Week 2…
Updated 04.09.22 @ 8:51a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/09/video-stunner-of-a-sunday-dialed-up-timing-out-rain-and-storm-chances-in-the-week-ahead-and-looking-at-another-shot-of-winter-like-conditions-week-2/
Apr 07
VIDEO: Long Range Outlook Into Late April…
Updated 04.07.22 @ 8:46p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/07/video-long-range-outlook-into-late-april/
Apr 05
Yet Again, Warmth Likely Only A Tease…
Updated 04.05.22 @ 6:48a
We’ve already handled the jab of unseasonable chill and even opportunity for wet snow showers late week so want to focus more on what lies ahead. The idea here has been that a mid month warm up would pave the way to more sustained spring like temperatures for the 2nd half of April. While the mid month warmup is still certainly on track, the longevity and duration of such is now met with a much, much lower confidence.
The good news? A significant warmup is still dialed up next week. (This will be extra sweet coming on the heels of what will be a rough go of things with out of season chill and snow showers later this week). Highs in the 70s and even low 80s are a good bet next week.
A potent frontal system looms late next week that we’ll have to watch for the threat of severe weather. More on that ahead in our shorter term products as we get closer. The passage of this front will also likely usher in another airmass that’s set to run below, to well below normal. Frost potential is alive and kicking week after next (remember we also have to deal with frost/ freeze conditions this upcoming weekend) with this kind of pattern. The NAO takes a negative hit which also supports the temperature reversal from what will be such a warm stretch next week…
Remember, we’re only the messenger…
In the shorter term, today isn’t looking nearly as wet as once thought. There will be a few showers around, but the steadier, more persistent rain will fall to the southeast of central Indiana.
More widespread rain and even a couple embedded storms are slated to impact our neck of the woods Wednesday morning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/05/yet-again-warmth-likely-only-a-tease/
Apr 02
VIDEO: Busy Pattern This Week; Wintry Conditions Next Weekend…
Updated 04.02.22 @ 8:46a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/02/video-busy-pattern-this-week-wintry-conditions-next-weekend/
Apr 01
VIDEO: Active Time Of Things As We Open Up April…
Updated 04.01.22 @ 8:07a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/01/video-active-time-of-things-as-we-open-up-april/
Mar 31
Long Range Update: The Roller Coaster That Is Spring…
Updated 03.31.22 @ 7:09a
As we look ahead over the next couple weeks, a rather active pattern is expected to continue, including multiple storm systems that will likely impact our area every few days. This will likely also result in brief but significant spikes of warmth ahead of the system (example: yesterday’s high of 78°) in what otherwise will be a period of cooler than normal conditions.
Despite the active nature of the pattern, precipitation should be pretty close to average through the middle of April, locally. The heavier rainfall, relative to average, will be confined to the Gulf Coast.
It’s been a while since we talked about the MJO and that’s due to it being a non-factor over the past couple weeks residing in the null, or neutral, phase.
Other teleconnections (namely the NAO and EPO) have supported the overall cooler regime of late. However, these drivers are in the process of flipping to states (positive) that will at least likely attempt to drive more sustained warmth our way as we approach mid-April. Modeling may be catching on to that as well. Note when looking at 5-day increments, the ‘mean’ trough position is looking to dump the trough into the West closer to mid April.
Moral of the story is to hang in there. Though we still yet have additional chilly times to get through over the next 10-14 days, there’s reason to begin buying into the potential of more sustained warmth trying to take hold towards mid and late month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/31/long-range-update-the-roller-coaster-that-is-spring/
Mar 27
VIDEO: Conditions Come Together For A Few Strong Storms Wednesday Evening; Colder Shift Yet Again To Close The Week…
Updated 03.27.22 @ 8:52a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/27/video-conditions-come-together-for-a-few-strong-storms-wednesday-evening-colder-shift-yet-again-to-close-the-week/
Mar 26
Strong Storm Potential Midweek; Cold, Wintry Conditions Reinforce Themselves Next Weekend…
Updated 03.26.22 @ 8:45a
Some northern Indianapolis suburbs are waking up to more than a coating of snow this morning (have reports of 1″ to 2″ in and around Fishers this morning). Across other parts of the area, snow didn’t accumulate much more than a dusting, but all of the area has gotten in on the late season snow “excitement” (at least seeing it fall) between last night and early Saturday morning.
As we progress through the day, drier air will take hold and help put an end to the localized snow squalls. Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to fall into the middle 20s. If that’s not cold enough, Monday morning should feature low temperatures between 20° and 22° for most, especially outside of the immediate metro.
The new work week will open with sunshine before clouds increase late Monday and into Tuesday. Light rain will be fast to follow.
After a break in the action Wednesday morning, temperatures will briefly spike into the lower 70s by afternoon, courtesy of a strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Our attention by this time will shift to the west as an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms approaches for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Side note: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) eventually puts at least southern portions of the state in a risk of severe weather Wednesday (focused on evening into the nighttime hours). We’ll monitor that moving forward.
The front will quickly sweep through the state Thursday morning, allowing temperatures to fall through the day Thursday. In fact, temperatures will likely once again grow cold enough to allow wrap around rain to begin mixing with snow Thursday evening. Friday will likely feature scattered snow showers with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30s for highs. Additional hard freezes are on deck next weekend (20s at night).
The pattern beyond next weekend continues to look colder than normal into the 10-15 day period. As long as that NAO remains negative, we won’t get excited for “stick and hold” spring conditions anytime soon…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/26/strong-storm-potential-midweek-cold-wintry-conditions-reinforce-themselves-next-weekend/
Mar 25
Still Some Winter Left In The Tank…
Updated 03.25.22 @ 7:40a Rain will mix with and change to snow after sunset with widespread snow showers and embedded squalls taking up residence across the area Saturday morning. A…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/25/still-some-winter-left-in-the-tank/