Category: Ensemble Discussion

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May 10

“Transitional” Is The Theme For Our Temperature Pattern Upcoming 10-14 Days; Precipitation Pattern? Not So Much…

• Filed under Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

• May 10, 2022

Updated 05.10.22 @ 6:30a

There’s a reason we labeled the midweek pattern as a “taste” of summer. Thankfully, (speaking for most, I believe) we’re not ready to “lock and load” the summer like heat and humidity. In fact, we’ll get some relief from humidity by the latter stages of the work week. By early next week, highs will drop back into the lower 70s and overnight lows will fall into the 40s.

Despite the roller coaster ride the next couple of weeks will likely deliver from a temperature perspective (remember, we have the MJO to deal with again now, too), the pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal over the upcoming 10-14 days.

While the pattern is likely one to continue featuring wild swings in temperatures to wrap up the month, most of the frontal systems seem like they won’t deliver excessive rainfall amounts from this distance. It should be noted the European data above has plenty of support from its American and Canadian counterparts.

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