Category: Ensemble Discussion

Updated 10.06.22 @ 9:57p

Without question, October is going to end up cooler to much cooler than I originally anticipated. Note the JMA Weeklies going right to a persistent chill as we go through the remainder of the month:

Originally, the thought here is that we would end up slightly warmer than normal for October but that isn’t going to be the case. Don’t get us wrong, there will still be warmer than normal days, but these will be fleeting and likely take place a day or two before a fresh batch of cooler air takes hold behind frontal passages.

The latest ensemble guidance is going right to the cool look, too.

The pattern does look like it’ll continue to run drier than normal, but there should be a more significant return of moisture ahead of mid and late month fronts that will at least help make up for the unusually dry early part of October. Those mid October fronts will ignite the lake effect snow for the first time this year across the traditional snow belt areas of MI, OH, northern IN and into the high elevations of the Appalachians.

As the MJO rolls into Phase 6, this should only mean the trough reinforces itself over the eastern 1/3 of the country that much more come mid October.

Of course the cooler October trends bring us to the next question, should we continue to ride this cooler trend into November or be worried that the idea of a colder, more wintry, regime taking hold in November (emphasis on the 2nd half of the month) is up for debate?

Stay tuned.