Category: Ensemble Discussion

Aug 02

Evolving Wet, Cooler Than Normal August Pattern…

• Filed under Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

• August 2, 2023

Updated 08.02.23 @ 6:25a

For the 3rd consecutive morning, many central Indiana communities are starting the day in the 50s. – Not bad at all by late July or early August standards if you ask me.

We’ve already reviewed the favorable teleconnections through mid month and while we’ll continue keeping close eyes on the MJO (it’ll want to join the party eventually), through the next couple weeks, it doesn’t look like it’ll have much, if any, influence on the pattern.

Data the past couple of days has trended cooler and wetter through mid-month. After a quiet open to August (our neighbors across southwest Indiana won’t say the same), the pattern will take a renewed active turn late week.

You know the drill by now: this all has to do with the ‘mean’ ridge position, or hot dome.

Note how the upper air pattern evolves from Day 1 (below) to mid-month.

The bottom line over the next couple weeks is that we shouldn’t see any excessive heat (seasonal to slightly cooler than normal) and an increasingly wet time of things as the region will be in a favorable northwesterly flow aloft.

It sure appears that the 3rd and final month of meteorological summer will close on a rather busy note, but without much in the way of uncomfortable heat.

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