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Category: Ensemble Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-storm-threat-discussion-easter-weekend-forecast-and-looking-ahead-to-late-april/
Apr 04
Pattern Returns To An Active Time Of Things…
One word to describe the mid-April weather pattern? ACTIVE. Tonight’s medium and long range video update dives in further…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pattern-returns-to-an-active-time-of-things/
Apr 01
Here Comes Spring: More Of A Substantial Warm-Up On Deck…
After a cold March (Indianapolis ran 4 F below average) and open to April, changes are on the horizon.
Before going further, March was always expected to be the coldest month (relative to average) of meteorological spring. For new subscribers, you can find our Spring Outlook here.
Looking ahead, note the rather dramatic shift that takes place at 500mb from the immediate term (image 1) to the medium range (or 6-10 day) period in image 2 below. Say goodbye to that AK ridge and subsequent downstream trough/ associated cooler than normal conditions.
This will likely result in the warmest air since October by the time we get to this weekend. High temperatures into the lower to middle 70s are a good bet this weekend. Saturday looks mostly dry before a few t-storms enter into the picture by Sunday.
As we look forward, additional unsettled conditions are a good bet early next week, along with seasonable to warmer than average conditions continuing.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/here-comes-spring-more-of-a-substantial-warm-up-on-deck/
Mar 25
Long Range Video Update: April Opens Stormy And Colder Than Normal…
It’s quiet now, but a very active and stormy pattern will get underway as we head into the weekend. This busy weather pattern will continue to rule the day into…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-video-update-april-opens-stormy-and-colder-than-normal/
Mar 16
Now We’re Talking…
Meteorological Spring has gotten off to a cold start- to the tune of nearly 5 degrees below average at IND through 3/15.
Note the brutal cold across the Northern Plains and Rockies.
The upcoming week will feature a positive PNA pattern and associated cooler than average theme to open, before beginning to moderate mid-to-late in the work week.
That said, time is limited on the chilly pattern and an overall significant shift to more of a sustained spring-like pattern awaits to close March and as we head into April.
Note the warmth that follows:
This will result in many more days in the 60s and 70s as we put a wrap on March and open April.
While weak systems will continue to impact the area (tomorrow, Wednesday, and again next Sunday), the deeper, moisture-laden storms will take a “backseat” during the fast-moving northwest flow. That begins to change during the last few days of the month and on into April. The latest ensemble guidance sees the return of a more active pattern, likely complete with heavier rain events and the potential of stronger storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/now-were-talking-4/