Category: Ensemble Discussion

May 06

More Evidence Behind Mid-May Shift To Cooler And Drier…

Though May has opened warmer than average (to the tune of 1 degree F above normal, month-to-date), there’s growing evidence behind a shift towards not only a cooler pattern for mid-month, but drier, as well.

MJO:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move through Phase 7 (a cooler phase in May across the eastern half of the country).

PNA:

The Pacific North America pattern is forecast to remain positive into mid-May. This favors a cooler than normal south-central into the eastern portion of the country, as well.

To no surprise, we see modeling now in excellent agreement of the cooler mid-month shift that awaits on deck. Recall that this wasn’t the case last week when the GFS and EPS were in vast disagreement.

The cooler shift also will provide relief from the seemingly unending wet regime we’ve been in as of late.

Hang in there; after a warm, wet open to the month, the pattern will begin to shift around in significant fashion as we move into the weekend and beyond…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-evidence-behind-mid-may-shift-to-cooler-and-drier/

May 05

All-Access Video: Week-Ahead Outlook; Cooler Than Average Pattern On Deck As May Progresses…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-video-week-ahead-outlook-cooler-than-average-pattern-on-deck-as-may-progresses/

May 01

Time To Duke It Out…

We know the upcoming (10) day period is going to feature a continuation of above average rainfall, but what lies beyond that? Ensemble data is entirely in two different camps once we get to the Day 10-15 period.

GEFS:

EPS:

Talk about a night and day difference. This would result in widespread 70s and 80s should the GEFS prove accurate (and put our May outlook in jeopardy) versus 50s and 60s should the European turn out to be correct (more in line with our monthly outlook). Unfortunately, from a precipitation perspective, wetter than normal times are expected to continue for the balance of the month of May and the data is in more agreement from that perspective- despite the vast differences at 500mb.

When we look at the latest CFSv2, it’s more in line with the European camp, including rather widespread chilly, damp weather for the mid-to-late May time period.

The combination of a negative NAO and AO, though not nearly to the extent of chill found in late winter/ early spring, do continue to hint at cooler than normal times in May. Eventually I would expect the GEFS to trend cooler, as well.

Furthermore, the PNA (currently negative) is forecast to trend positive by mid-May and that supports the cooler anomalies returning to our immediate region.

We’ll also have to keep close tabs on the MJO and see if it wants to propagate through Phases 5-8, or go back in the “wheelhouse” and really not be a factor. (More to come there).

To sum things up, we don’t see an end in sight to the overall wetter than average pattern as we progress into the middle of May. We’re less confident on the overall temperature pattern, but lean towards the EPS and CFSv2 “winning” over the warm GEFS solution in the end.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/time-to-duke-it-out/

Apr 27

Finalized May Outlook: One Word? Volatile

Averages for May are as follows:

*High: 72.8

*Low: 52.6

*Rainfall: 5.05″

*Snowfall: Trace

When all is said and done, this is how we see the last month of meteorological spring shaping up:

Medium and longer range guidance has been anything but consistent over the past few weeks for May, which doesn’t help in producing a monthly outlook. A large part of this may have to do with the renewed hyperactive MJO.

This can lead to volatile swings in the overall pattern as we get into the mid to late part of the month. Early on, confidence is higher in a “battle” setting up between late season anomalous cold across the north and budding summer-like warmth across the south.

This will help add fuel to the fire in what should be an overall wet month across a large portion of the country.

With that said, we think ridging is likely to keep the extreme southeastern region drier than normal for the bulk of the month.

As we look towards mid-May, that battle between southeastern ridging and troughiness across the northern region continues to argue for active times remaining.

Speaking more specific to central IN and the greater OHV region overall, we think a cooler and wetter than normal month awaits. Unfortunately, delays are likely to continue from an agriculture/ Plant ’19 perspective…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/finalized-may-outlook-one-word-volatile/

Apr 24

VIDEO: Scattered Shower Chances Increase This Evening; Wet Pattern Develops Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-scattered-shower-chances-increase-this-evening-wet-pattern-develops-next-week/