Category: Ensemble Discussion

Before we display the mean upper level pattern ahead over the next couple weeks, let’s look at some of the various teleconnections to gain some insight behind what’s driving the overall pattern.

EPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

WPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

MJO- heading into Phase 6 with a look like it wants to rumble into Phase 7. This is a warm signal this time of year.

With the warm signals above, it should come as no surprise of the next couple weeks offering up a predominant eastern ridge.

Days 6-10

Days 10-14

While a couple of weak cold fronts may lead to somewhat cooler air briefly, the balance of the next couple of weeks looks to offer up much more in the way of summer-like heat and well above normal warmth. It should also be noted that the overall pattern looks like a dry one over the next 10-14 days, as well.

Don’t put away that swim suit just yet!