The unseasonable warmth won’t last, at least not to this magnitude, but an overall warmer than average pattern should persist over the upcoming couple of weeks.

The teleconnections (positive AO, positive EPO, negative PNA) are aligned in a manner that will drive the ‘mean’ ridge position across the eastern portion of the country.

Subsequently, the warmth, relative to normal, remains locked in over the East through mid month. Note how similar the GEFS and EPS are between Week 1 and Week 2.

Though we will cool off behind the passage of a cold front next week, we’re still running above normal into Week 2.

We’re not ready to throw in the towel on the idea we could be looking at a more wholesale pattern shift late month. The MJO supports that idea. Note Phase 2 this time of year favors the chill to settle into the East.

It’ll be an interesting test case in what otherwise looks to be a mild to much milder than normal (and quiet) pattern.