You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Ensemble Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-shot-of-cold-air-inbound-more-chatter-around-a-wintry-close-to-feb-and-open-to-march/
Feb 18
Stormy Pattern Returns Next Week: Walking Through Two Different Possibilities…
A much colder air mass will push into the Ohio Valley region today, taking up residence into the latter part of the work week. The good news? After we get rid of the clouds today, plentiful sunshine is expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as sprawling high pressure dominates.
This week’s quiet weather will quickly shift to a return of a stormy regime as we push into next week. From this distance, there’s really (2) camps the majority of modeling falls into. The European paints a pattern will undercutting storms beneath a developing block across Ontario and Quebec. This would present multiple opportunities for wintry weather next week across not only central Indiana, but a large chunk of the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile the GFS says the primary storm track will be northwest of our area, allowing a milder southwesterly flow to take hold and primarily rain.
So what’s more likely to happen? We’re leaning more towards the European solution with an evolving cold pattern (that begins stormy) as we close February and open March. Note the blocking next week across Quebec and Ontario eventually give way towards more of a wholesale eastern North America trough as we welcome in meteorological spring. This continues to raise our confidence on March opening much colder than normal.
The GFS ensemble also sees this colder pattern evolving to close February and open March.
Stay tuned as we get set for another active stretch of weather around these parts next week.
As for the shift back to cold, the longevity of said cold pattern lies solely on the progression of the MJO and EPO. More to come on that with our long range Thursday update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-pattern-returns-next-week-walking-through-two-different-possibilities/
Feb 17
VIDEO: Timing The Arrival Of Rain And Amounts; Looking Ahead To Early March Changes…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-timing-the-arrival-of-rain-and-amounts-looking-ahead-to-early-march-changes/
Feb 10
Evening Review Of Data; Early Idea Of Heaviest Snow Axis Wednesday-Thursday…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-review-of-data-early-idea-of-heaviest-snow-axis-wednesday-thursday/
Feb 06
Long Range Update: Latest EPO/ MJO Implications…
Before we dig into the late-February pattern, there’s no let-up in sight with respect to our current active weather pattern. Just next week alone, we’re tracking (3) systems:
I. Sunday
II. Wednesday
III. Thursday-Friday
This is all part of the big battle taking place between a persistent southeast ridge and western trough. The tight thermal gradient between these features will help “fuel” continued active times, and above average precipitation next week. As mentioned this morning, at times we’ll have to deal with bouts of moderate-heavy rain, and at others, sleet, snow, and freezing rain.
Looking ahead, we continue to build our longer range forecast by using “base ingredients” that feature a 50-50 split of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and EPO (East Pacific Oscillation).
The MJO maintains a warm look, rolling things into Phase 5-6 over the next few weeks.
As you know by now, these are warm phases- especially across the eastern portion of the country.
The “saving grace” for fans of at least being on the playing field for a chance of wintry weather in such warm MJO phases is the negative EPO. There’s great model agreement that this negative EPO will continue into the middle part of the month and this will keep us on our toes for wintry implications as storms track through the region. Conversely, there’s reason to buy into a “blow torch” regime to close the month, as the EPO flips positive and combines with the Phase 5-6 of the MJO.
To no surprise, given the above, we see the new European Weeklies showing a warming trend (after the fight over the upcoming week) for late-February.
The JMA Weeklies from this morning (for the Weeks 3-4 time frame) would agree.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-latest-epo-mjo-implications/