Category: Drought

Sep 30

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.30.19 through 10.06.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Though significant cooling will take place later this week and weekend, overall, the period will run above average in the temperature department with the near record heat to open the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: In addition to the Rockies, the upper Mid West, northern Great Lakes region, and interior Northeast will likely receive their first frost or freeze of the season Friday and/ or Saturday morning.

Drought Monitor: Widespread dry to droughty conditions exist across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Ohio Valley and lower Michigan. Portions of northern IL into northern IN and lower MI cashed in on excessive rainfall late last week and show greatly improved conditions from a drought perspective with this week’s update. Unfortunately, the cold front that’s set to deliver the much cooler air later this week won’t have much moisture to work with and an overall dry time of things should continue for the better part of the region.

Summary: A strong southwesterly air flow will promote anomalous heat as we traverse the first half of the work week. In some cases, records will fall across the Ohio Valley region. Looking ahead, a stout cold front will sink south in the Wednesday evening-Thursday time frame. A few showers are likely ahead of the front, but significant or widespread rainfall isn’t anticipated. The much bigger deal will be the significantly cooler air that arrives Thursday evening into the weekend. We’ll go from temperatures around 20 degrees above normal to open the work week to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal by late week.

The next best shot of organized beneficial rainfall will arrive late Sunday into early Monday of next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-8/

Sep 22

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.22.19 through 09.29.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Well above average temperatures are expected through the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: The growing season will come to an end this week across the central Rockies (frost and freeze warnings are up) and eventually across the Bitterroot range as lows fall into the mid and upper 20s by late week.

Drought Monitor: The latest drought monitor shows widespread dryness across the central and southern portions of the Ohio Valley, extending north and northwest into IA and MI. A good chunk of these dry/ droughty areas from MO, IA, and IL will be wiped out by Thursday’s update as beneficial soaking rains fall on this area today from the remnants of Imelda and a passing cold front.

Summary: A cold front and remnant moisture from Imelda will lead to better rain chances across central Indiana this evening into early Monday morning. With that said, the widespread soaking rains our friends just west of our area are receiving this morning will diminish as they move into central Indiana tonight. While there will be a couple of exceptions (with heavier rainfall totals), most central Indiana rain gauges will likely pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ tonight. Thereafter, temperatures will trend cooler (more seasonable) for the early and middle part of the work week before an expansive ridge engulfs the eastern portion of the country late week into Week 2. This will promote not only well above average warmth, but in some cases rival records.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-7/

Jun 05

Telling Time Ahead…

Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet.  The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea.  The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well.  On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift.  With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.”  I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend.  Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer.  (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).

While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar.  More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.

While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region.  We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.

Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally.  Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole.  In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June.  At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/telling-time-ahead/

Oct 05

Weekly Highlights: Action Out West…

Highlights10051011There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well. One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week. While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes. 🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

1.)  The upper low associated with the catastrophic flooding in SC will continue to slowly pull away from the area as we progress into Tuesday.  Our thoughts and prayers remain with the fine folks of South Carolina as recovery and clean up begins.  Hard to believe areas of SC were in a significant drought as soon as last week.  Those exact same areas have received as much as 25″-30″ of rain over the past 72 hours.  Simply amazing stuff.

2.)  A series of storm systems will clip the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain and wind as the week progresses- particularly mid week into the weekend.

3.)  A storm system and significant moisture will move through the Four Corners region and into western Texas Wednesday into the weekend.  Heavy rain and localized flooding will result.

4.)  A cold front will move through the Mid West later this week with showers and embedded thunder, along with cooler air for the weekend.

As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide. Have a great day and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/5408/

Sep 17

Thursday Weather Notebook…

Another sunny day: This morning’s satellite shows that we’re going to be looking at another mostly sunny and pleasant day across the region. Humidity remains lows for now so it’ll…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-weather-notebook-3/