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Category: Dew points
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/06/video-hint-of-fall-the-next-couple-mornings/
Jun 09
New Week Kicks Off With More Storm Chances…
An active, and at times stormy, pattern will remain into the new week. The setup remains the same and doesn’t need rehashing :-). While we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of morning convection around the area Sunday, thinking here is beginning to shift to Sunday night and predawn Monday as the next best chance of gusty storms and more widespread coverage of beneficial rain. A warm and muggy air mass will be in place and as vigorous upper level energy interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms that initiate to our northwest should hold together, if not grow stronger moving into central Indiana.
Upper level energy will track across the state Sunday night and Monday morning.
Dew points are forecast to surge into the lower 70s Sunday night.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Forecast radar is beginning to pick up on potentially a noisy time of things Sunday night.
A warm and sticky air mass will remain in place through the first half of the work week before a frontal passage offers up a brief bout of slightly drier air for the middle of the week. Dew points will ease back into comfy range (50s) Wednesday and should also lead to a mostly dry day.
We’ll get to at least briefly enjoy a drier air mass Wednesday.
Humidity will build once again as we move into the latter portions of the work week and with the return of the summer mugginess will come a return of thunderstorm chances (scattered coverage Thursday and Friday).
An early look at next weekend shows general agreement with the GFS and European forecast models: drier air returning along with slightly cooler air. We’ll keep you updated!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/09/new-week-kicks-off-with-more-storm-chances/
May 22
The Heat (And Humidity) Is On This Indy 500; Memorial Day Weekend…
As we grow closer to the big Indy 500 and Memorial Day weekend, forecast guidance continues to back away from what at one point looked like a rather unsettled weekend. Instead, it appears as if heat and humidity will grab the headlines. While we can’t rule out an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm (best chances of that coming Sunday and Monday), most will remain rain and storm free this weekend. Even if you’re one of the “lucky ones” to get under a storm, it’ll pass quickly and sunshine will return.
While “tropical mischief” approaches the central Gulf Coast this weekend, an upper level ridge will dominate our weather. This supports the drier trend the models are now going to and also will help boost temperatures. We forecast highs at or around the 90° mark Saturday through Memorial Day- well above the average high of 78°.
The other big story, especially for those planning to attend the race, will be increasing humidity over the weekend. Forecast dew points will approach and exceed the 70° mark Sunday afternoon, providing a very tropical feel to the air.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/22/the-heat-and-humidity-is-on-this-indy-500-memorial-day-weekend/
May 09
Timing Out Storm Chances Tonight…
We continue to monitor things closely for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. As of this morning, we still believe greatest threats of severe weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/timing-out-storm-chances-tonight/
Jul 22
VIDEO: Oppressive Feel Gives Way To Strong Storms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/22/video-oppressive-feel-gives-way-to-strong-storms/
Jul 18
Increasingly Hot And Humid…
Highlights:
- Increasingly hot and humid
- Isolated storm coverage becomes more widespread
- Relief next week
Air You Can Wear…The big weather story will be the increasingly hot and humid feel as we progress through the week and on into the weekend. The combination of dew points in the 70s and wet soils across the state should “beat back” the heat from getting to where it otherwise could (mid-upper 90s), but it’ll feel oppressive, nonetheless. Plan to hydrate and wear cool, lightweight clothing if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time.
While we can’t completely rule out a renegade storm through Friday, most neighborhoods will remain free of any rain through the remainder of the work week. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend into early next week as the transition from hot, humid weather begins to give way to a more pleasant feel.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/18/increasingly-hot-and-humid/
Jul 16
Afternoon And Evening Rumbles…
Highlights:
- T-storms arrive this afternoon
- Heating up this week
- Stormy periods late-week
Pleasant Start; Stormy Finish…After we got rid of the low level clouds and fog Saturday, it turned out to be a gorgeous day! The balance of our Sunday will also be very pleasant, but a frontal boundary will push through the state this evening and will be sufficient enough to kick up a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact central IN this afternoon and evening. One or two of the storms could reach severe levels (large hail and damaging wind).
As we look forward, the big weather story this week will be the increasingly hot and muggy feel by late-week. Factor in that highs will approach 90° the second half of the week, along with dew points exceeding 70° and the stage will be set for a truly “oppressive” feel. Prepare to sweat.
Along with the increasingly heat and humidity, we’ll also note an increase in overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the late-week stretch. Individual disturbances will create periods of more widespread storms and with such a moisture rich air mass in place, expect periods of locally heavy rainfall.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/16/afternoon-and-evening-rumbles/
Jul 11
Another Stormy Day…
Highlights:
- Tuesday and Thursday appear to be the stormiest days
- Drier trend to close the week; open the weekend
- Humid air gives way to a more refreshing feel
Stormy Periods…Storms are building across west-central Indiana this morning and these will settle into the city, itself, as the rush hour nears. This is only the beginning of multiple rounds of thunderstorms that will ride in a northwest to southeast fashion across central Indiana today. With dew points in the lower and middle 70s and precipitable water values exceeding 2″, additional flash flooding will result today for some communities where storms “train” over the same areas. A couple of strong-to-severe storms are also possible this afternoon with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concern.
While we can’t rule out a passing storm Wednesday, overall storm coverage should be significantly reduced tomorrow as we get in on bit of a breather before another active time of things Thursday.
A surface front will settle south Friday. Best thunderstorm chances should occur during the front half of the day before a drier regime builds in from the north Friday evening and into Saturday. Temperatures will cool slightly, but we’ll really be able to notice a dramatic reduction in the humidity.
Sunday should be mostly dry, but we note a weak secondary boundary that will pass late in the day. This may be just enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon or evening.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/11/another-stormy-day/
Jul 10
Active Times This Week…
The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley. Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight. Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.
A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/10/active-times-this-week/
Feb 18
Thoughts Shift Towards Severe Weather Season…
With the unseasonable warmth this week, our thoughts begin to shift to the coming spring months ahead. Of course with spring comes the potential of storms- some of which include severe weather outbreaks.
Already, 2017 has wasted no time in the tornado department, year-to-date- more than double the (10) year average across the United States.
The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north. As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.
The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.
As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west. The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast). Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.
Much more later as spring evolves.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/18/thoughts-shift-towards-severe-weather-season/