Thoughts Shift Towards Severe Weather Season…
With the unseasonable warmth this week, our thoughts begin to shift to the coming spring months ahead. Of course with spring comes the potential of storms- some of which include severe weather outbreaks.
Already, 2017 has wasted no time in the tornado department, year-to-date- more than double the (10) year average across the United States.
The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north. As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.
The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.
As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west. The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast). Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.
Much more later as spring evolves.
You’ll definitely notice the drier, crisp feel to the air upon stepping outside this morning. If you try hard enough, you can almost smell fall! 🙂
We know this is the beginning of the transitional time of the year. Eventually, these cold fronts will back more and more of a punch as we rumble deeper into fall. On the flip side, summer isn’t ready to go away without a fight. In fact, temperatures well above normal will return for Labor Day, itself, and continue into the majority of next week. A string of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common next week.
Longer term, there are indications that continue to support the idea of a potentially more significant cool down around mid September. Stay tuned…
2.) HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.
3.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday. We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week. That said, “briefly” is the key word. Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.
4.) Attention next week will shift to the tropics. There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week. Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.
