Nov 13
After reviewing the latest data, we wanted to take a moment to provide a couple of take-aways on the storm system that will impact the region tomorrow night and Thursday.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/13/tuesday-evening-rambles-notes-on-wednesday-night-thursday/
Nov 12
I. A weak weather system will result in light precipitation (mostly snow) overspreading central and northern portions of the state later this evening into the overnight. Moisture looks less and less impressive with each and every model run, but we’ll still go with a slushy coating to less than 1″ for the city, itself with a general 1″ to 2″ of wet snow for communities off to the north of the city. Additionally, a lake effect snow band should get going Tuesday morning and this band may make it south into east-central Indiana in a weakened state.
Light snow will overspread the region tonight. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
II. Another push of unseasonably cold air will pour south into the region behind this storm system and set the stage for a potentially interesting time of things when a new storm system approaches a bit later in the week…
III. A very complex storm system will impact the area Thursday. While there are many details that are yet to be worked out, someone across the mid-south into the Ohio Valley will likely get a “plowable” snow out of this event. Initially, available cold air will be marginal, but with an expected strong upper level low, this storm system is likely to “manufacture” its’ own cold air and result in a swath of heavy, wet snow to the north and northwest of where the upper low tracks. Stay tuned.
Behind this storm, you guessed it- cold air will reinforce itself across the region heading into next weekend!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/12/looking-at-a-busy-wintry-week-ahead/
Aug 06
A cold front is slowly sinking south and will feature a weak wave of low pressure that will track along the boundary Tuesday. The end result spells for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana over the upcoming 24-36 hours.
Initially, we expect an area of thunderstorms to push south and potentially impact north-central portions of the state later tonight. The latest high resolution NAM forecast radar gives us an idea what the radar may look like late tonight- just after midnight.
Some of the storms across the northern third of the state may “pulse” to severe levels this evening, including the potential of large hail and damaging winds. (This complex will weaken as it surges south later tonight).
As we turn our attention to Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong storms are possible, including locally heavy rain.
Eventually, drier times will return by mid-week. Beforehand, most central Indiana rain gauges should receive somewhere between 0.50″ to 1″ of rain. With a rich, tropical airmass in place, there will be some locally heavier totals.
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
As the cold front moves south during the midweek stretch, drier times will return Wednesday and Thursday. With that said, the drier regime won’t last long, as a cut off upper low “mucks” things up over the weekend. While it certainly won’t rain the entire time, daily rain chances will return late Friday, continuing throughout the weekend. There’s no need to cancel any outdoor plans, but have the rain gear handy, as you’ll likely need it at times throughout the weekend.
A “cut off” upper low will impact the region this weekend. Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.
Speaking of rain and overall unsettled times, the pattern sure looks active around these parts into the mid and longer range. More on that in future updates…
Longer range data suggests wetter than normal times throughout the Ohio Valley mid and late August. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/06/unsettled-24-36-hours-and-looking-beyond/
Aug 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/06/video-week-is-bookended-by-unsettled-weather/
Jul 22
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/22/video-closing-out-july-and-looking-ahead-to-august/
Jul 20
We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather this afternoon and evening across central and eastern portions of the state. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center includes an ‘Enhanced’ risk for the majority of the state and has upgraded southeastern portions of the state into a rare ‘Moderate’ risk.
Part of the reason behind today’s severe weather has to do with an overall pattern shift. An intense short wave trough (especially for this time of year) will dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from southern WI (this morning) before “cutting off” over the Ohio Valley this weekend. Additionally, a couple of frontal boundaries will swing through the state- the most potent being the boundary that surges east this afternoon and evening. The combination of ingredients spell trouble across at least a portion of the region- especially from Indianapolis and points south and east this afternoon and evening.
High resolution forecast radar products are likely struggling with handling the specifics today, but we think one or two lines of storms will track southeast across the state this afternoon and evening. The risk of severe weather will diminish from 7p to 8p from northwest to southeast across the state. Greatest concerns from a severe perspective include the potential of large, damaging hail and straight line winds. Additionally, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out. It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon and evening. Have a means of getting the latest information with respect to watches and warnings that may be issued later today from the National Weather Service.
As we look ahead, though the severe threat will end, unsettled times will remain this weekend. In fact, a couple of the stronger showers Saturday afternoon could contain hail (below severe levels), due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low. Greatest coverage of showers this weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours both Saturday and Sunday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/20/active-severe-weather-day/
Jul 19
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/19/video-all-eyes-on-friday-unsettled-weekend-follows/
Jul 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/18/video-active-and-unseasonably-cool-times-await/
Jul 17
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/17/video-less-humid-midweek-unsettled-weather-returns-this-weekend/
Oct 01
Highlights:
Slow Improvements…The “cut off” upper low that’s plagued the region for the past few days will slowly begin to lift north this weekend. Eventually it’ll get absorbed into the westerlies and get outta’ here! The end result will be a slowly improving weekend. Rain coverage will be greater today than Sunday, but less than Friday! 🙂 Slow moving showers and embedded thunder will be most numerous this afternoon before slowly diminishing tonight. While we’ll have to maintain mention of a shower Sunday, most folks will remain dry.
The work week will get off to a dry start along with moderating temperatures. Highs by mid week will reach the lower 80s as a southwesterly air flow dominates ahead of an approaching strong autumn front.
While timing still needs to be fine tuned, we’re focusing in on the cold front passing through central IN Friday morning. Ahead of the boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected followed by an abrubt NW wind shift and a MUCH cooler air mass for the weekend. Speaking of cool, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some neighborhood lows into the upper 30s next weekend.
It is October, after all…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
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