While the weather is currently quiet across central Indiana, that will likely change in a significant way as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours.
As we look at the current radar, note the widespread showers and thunderstorms off to our southwest. More importantly, the latest couple of frames indicate a strengthening line of storms beginning to “bow” out along the eastern flank (along the MO/ IL state line).
The environment in place upstream into southern and central Indiana remains one that would tend to favor these storms strengthening further in the coming hours.
We note the Storm Prediction Center has nudge the Slight Risk further north to encompass more of southern and central Indiana with their latest update and we would agree with this.
We think storm coverage (and intensity) will really begin to ramp up after 3p and the latest HRRR shows this nicely:
Greatest concern with any severe storms that develop has to do with strong and potentially damaging straight line winds. It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon into the evening hours.
*More later this evening, including our finalized July Outlook.
7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run near to slightly above average through the period.
7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run above average through the period.
Severe Outlook: While a couple of strong storms are possible during the period, widespread organized severe weather isn’t anticipated during the above forecast period.
Summary: The forecast period will feature an overall drier and warmer theme than what we’ve been used to of late. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger to open the work week before high pressure builds overhead and results in an overall dry forecast Tuesday. Upper level energy will allow scattered storms to return Wednesday before we dry things out again Thursday and Friday. As we look ahead to next weekend, a “backdoor” cold front will likely result in an uptick in rain chances Saturday followed by a cooler push of air by the 2nd half of next weekend.
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I.Briefly Refreshing: A badly needed dry stretch of weather will be short-lived- 24 hours at most for the majority of central Indiana, and that’s if you’re lucky. This evening, however, will offer a much drier brand of air building into the area along with dew points and temperatures falling into the middle to upper 50s. Areas of dense fog will be possible Friday morning in spots.
A brief refreshing change will take place tonight into Friday morning, including lows in the mid to upper 50s across central IN.
II. Tropical Air Returns: Just as soon as the drier air mass arrives, it’ll depart. We’ll go from morning dew points in the middle 50s Friday to upper 60s by evening and into the lower 70s by Saturday evening. It’s safe to the say that once to Saturday afternoon the humidity will be back with authority.
III. Warm Front Provides Focus For Storms: A warm front will lift northeast over the weekend and serve focus for hefty storms clusters to track in a northwest to southeast fashion. The first of a series of these clusters will likely arrive into the state late Friday morning or early afternoon and most likely affect the southwest portion of the state.
We believe the drier air mass will initially serve to shunt the storms to our southwest, but as an increasingly moist air mass lifts north, better chances of storms will return Friday evening into Saturday morning. This is a tough pattern to get specific with timing these storms clusters, but it’s safe to say central Indiana will come under the gun for multiple rounds of storms through the weekend and into early next week.
IV. Warmer; Drier Trends: While we can’t completely eliminate rain and storm chances, the trends continue to move towards a warmer and drier pattern building in here in the medium range (6-10 day period, or the overall period through the middle of next week into next weekend) as an upper level ridge builds over the Ohio Valley.
Enjoy while we have it as we continue to believe the pattern will return to an overall cooler and wetter theme for the bulk of July.
V. NEW European Weeklies: The updated European Weeklies are in and while they keep a warmer than normal pattern in place through the first 1/3 of July, they are bullish on signaling the return of a cooler regime around or shortly after the 10th. After a drier theme early July, wetter conditions are also signaled on the updated model data for the 2nd half of the month.
