Category Archives: Client

Changes Afoot…

Month-to-date, a negative EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) has dominated. The result has been for a cooler regime across the central into the interior Northeast.

Negative EPO temperature profile.
Month-to-date temperature anomalies.

That said, big changes are taking place with the EPO and it’s set to swing strongly positive as we head into the 3rd and 4th week of the month.

This correlates to a MUCH warmer/ hotter pattern across not only our portion of the country, but a large chunk of the Lower 48.

To no surprise, we see a building heat wave showing up on the medium to long range models with more consistency beginning this weekend, continuing into next week. This is the type regime that can lead to lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s for several consecutive days.

How long does the warmer pattern last? It’s all up to the EPO. As long as that baby stays positive, bet on the warmth.

No Comments Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, Summer, Unseasonably Warm

VIDEO: Severe Weather Event Tonight; A Lot Of “Noise” With Regard To The Late August Pattern…

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No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Typhoon Rule, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy

Storm Chances Increase Tonight…

A few showers are on the radar this morning, but it’s late tonight through very early Tuesday morning that has our attention for the possibility of severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to include a large chunk of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather.


Storms are expected to initiate across eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois late evening (between 6p and 8p) before rumbling east southeast.

Given the ingredients in place, all modes of severe weather are possible into the overnight, but it’s the potential of damaging straight line winds that is the greatest by the time the storms make it into central Indiana. (Targeting an arrival between 1a and 3a).

We’ll have a video posted early this evening with some of our latest thoughts and most updated high resolution guidance. As things stand now, we’d encourage you to make sure you have a means of getting the latest severe weather headlines that may come later tonight. It’ll be important to set your weather radio alerts to “on” as it’s most likely the storms will arrive when the majority of folks are sleeping.

Much more later this evening!

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast period: 08.12.19 through 08.19.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run near average through the forecast period.

7-Day Temperatures: Temperatures are expected to run near seasonal levels through the period.

Severe Outlook: Severe weather is expected across central Indiana as we open the work week. All modes of severe weather are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.

Summary: The forecast period will open up on an active note as a rather potent surface wave scoots across the southern Great Lakes region. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to organize across IA and IL Monday afternoon before pushing east southeast Monday evening. Accordingly, chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with locally heavy rain will be on the increase Monday evening into very early Tuesday across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Several favorable ingredients are coming together to produce the threat of severe weather, including large hail, damaging wind, and potentially a couple of tornadoes. On average, between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain is expected with this system, however, if thunderstorms “train” over the same communities tomorrow night, amounts will be much higher in localized areas.

Thereafter, weather conditions will quiet down as we move into the middle and latter portions of the work week. While heat and humidity will build to our southwest, immediate central Indiana shouldn’t have to deal with much in the way of excessive heat/ humidity through the forecast period with seasonal temperatures expected around our part of the state much of the week.

No Comments AG Report, Client, Severe Weather