Category Archives: Client

Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.

Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.

Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.

No Comments AG Report, Client, Drought, First Freeze, First frost, Harvest19, Severe Weather, Winter Storm

VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Systems In The Upcoming Week; Colder Late Month Trends…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Fall Foliage, First Freeze, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest19, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos

First Strong Cold Front Of The Season…

Our Friday is starting off with heavy rain and embedded thunder across western portions of the state.

Radar image Friday morning just after 6:30.

It’ll still be a while before central Indiana gets in on the more concentrated, widespread rain. We think this arrives later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Most can expect to pick up between 0.20” and 0.40” across central parts of the state, but there will be a few locally heavier totals.

Forecast radar 6p Friday.

Before the rain arrives, a strong southerly wind ahead of the front will send temperatures to around 70°. Meanwhile, note temperatures at the same time already into the 40s across eastern IL.

The temperature crash will continue through the evening hours advancing east. By 7p, temperatures in and around Indianapolis and points west will be in the 40s. A gusty wind will result in “feels like” temperatures into the 30s.

The first freeze of the season is expected Saturday morning for many across central Indiana into western and northern portions of the state. We anticipate wind chill values to fall into the middle 20s.

Another reinforcing shot of chilly air is dialed up next week. More on this and other items a bit later…

No Comments Autumn, Client, First Freeze, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest19, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Cool 6-10 Day Period Ahead, But Then What?

A strong cold front will sweep through the area tomorrow and help usher in the coolest air so far this autumn. This will set the tone, combined with the recurving WPAC typhoon, for a chilly upcoming 6-10 day period, but what lies beyond this period later in the month?

Recurving Super Typhoon Hagibis will promote reinforcing chill across our area next week.

We turn to a couple of our more trusted teleconnections for advice.

Note the PNA “bobbing” up and down through the medium range period, with more of a negative look around the 20th. This argues for a milder stretch of weather around that time. (Further out, we’ll keep close eyes on the PNA to see if a more consistent positive signal develops as we inch closer to November).

The EPO pops strongly positive mid month which, too, argues for milder times, locally. That said, similar to the PNA above, the EPO is trending towards a scenario that would present colder times as we rumble towards November. We’ll monitor for consistency.

To no surprise, given the two primary teleconnection drivers above (remember these can change as the seasons evolve), we see the pattern set to turn milder just beyond Day 10. Note the strong agreement between the European, Canadian, and GFS ensemble data below.

No Comments Autumn, Canadian Model, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Harvest19, PNA, Typhoon Rule, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm