Category Archives: Client

Client Brief: Snow Storm Inbound Sunday Evening – Monday…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the lower to middle 20s Monday night

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Sunday will feature a thickening and lowering cloud deck through the afternoon hours and this foretells what’s to come by evening. An expanding area of snow will overspread southern Indiana early evening and push into central/ north-central Indiana by mid-to-late evening, continuing into Sunday night. This will be the 1st of 2 rounds of wintry precipitation that will likely result in “plowable” accumulations for a good chunk of central Indiana come Monday evening. There will likely be a “lull” in the wintry precipitation Monday morning, but we anticipate widespread wintry precipitation to return late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours Monday. In and around Indianapolis and points north, this 2nd round of precipitation should also primarily take the form of snow, but we think southern Indiana will have a period of sleet and potentially a cold rain across far southern Indiana before transitioning back to snow before ending. Because of this, we think southern Indiana will fall into the 1″ to 3″ range for storm totals. Much colder air will pour into the state Monday evening as winds shift to the north/ northwest and gust up to 25 MPH. Snow will pull out of the state from west to east late Monday night. Due to the timing of this storm, big impacts are expected to the morning and evening rush hours Monday.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 2:30p Saturday

No Comments Client, ClientBrief, Rain, Sleet, snow, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix

Snow Arrives Sunday Evening; Latest Thoughts On Monday And Beyond…

After a dry and cold Saturday, weather will begin to deteriorate Sunday evening. We think snow will overspread central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night before transitioning to a wintry…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Lake Effect Snow, Rain, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos

Client Brief: Impactful Winter Weather Event Sunday Evening Through Monday…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

We continue to closely monitor the potential of an impactful winter weather maker Sunday evening through Monday. Initially, we think “overrunning” precipitation will overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. This should fall in the form of snow for most. As the surface low draws closer, precipitation will increase in intensity Sunday night into the day Monday. The all-important track of the surface low appears to take a path from western Arkansas Sunday night, along the Ohio River Monday morning and into western Pennsylvania by Monday night. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across portions of the state. The map above features our “ridiculously” early idea on best chances where the heavier snowfall will occur (shoveable totals seem like a good bet for places in and around Indianapolis and points north). Downstate, enough warmer air should get pulled into the system for a time Sunday night into Monday morning that a wintry mix of precipitation (sleet, snow, and rain) is expected to cut down snowfall totals. As the storm pulls up to our northeast, gusty northerly winds will develop with lingering snow showers in Monday night, along with colder conditions.

We’ll have an updated video post later this evening and will keep close eyes on data not only today, but straight through the weekend.

Confidence: Medium-High

Next Update: This evening (Video)

No Comments Client, ClientBrief, Rain, Sleet, snow, Winter Storm

Latest Thoughts On Early Next Week; Long Range Update Into Early Jan…

Through the 11th, December is running 1.6° above normal in Indianapolis. This milder than normal theme is rather widespread so far this month through the Lower 48.

As we look ahead, there are continued reasons to believe the pattern will begin to go through more of a transition towards an ultimately more sustained cold pattern as January evolves. We think that transition really started early this week and will feature plenty of “back and forth” over the the next 2-3 weeks before settling into the more sustained cold regime. There will be storms and “rumors of storms” that we’ll have to track through the transitional period, including smack-dab in the heart of the holiday season this year.

The latest JMA Weeklies (update each Thursday morning) shows this “fight” over the next 1-3 weeks.

JMA Weeklies Day 3-9 shows the cold returning to our portion of the country.
The pattern warms significantly across the Plains in the 10-16 day time frame and some of this milder air will try and eject east into the Ohio Valley.

Without blocking in place, the way the JMA Weeklies handle the pattern is likely, but the Weeks 2-3 time period does have a chance to offer up a headache or two as the models may begin to adjust to an increasingly “blocky” time of things.

There are at least “hints” that some of the teleconnections that would promote more of a blocky pattern are beginning to align. We caution though that this does take time for these feature to mature and begin to ultimately have a greater impact on our pattern.

The latest GEFS insists on a developing negative EPO in the medium to longer range. We know this favors eastern cold. Eventually, this should, indeed, take place, especially due to the northeast Pacific SST configuration and help drive more long-lasting cold, locally.
Interestingly, the GEFS also depicts a developing negative NAO mid and late December. This can help result in more sustained cold across our portion of the country into the northeast.

As we revisit the latest SST configuration, there’s continued reason to be very excited about this winter if you’re a fan of colder and snowier than normal conditions. We always knew December would be the tough month before the pattern settles into the mean winter pattern late December into March. Now, time to just sit back and watch things unfold. 🙂

Now, back to the short-term. Despite forecast models very much still in (2) separate worlds, we’ve dug into analogs and looked through countless similar patterns from the past. As model consensus develops (hopefully sooner rather than later), let’s see if they (speaking specifically to the GFS and European) converge on this similar solution for best chances of accumulating snow:

We still have many details to sort through and we caution that this system is far from being etched in stone. You’ll want to keep close tabs on latest developments over the next couple of days. With that said, we’re looking for potential wintry impacts here across central Indiana beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday.

This evening’s video update will focus solely on the Sunday-Monday system, including the latest model developments from 12z. Have a great Thursday!

No Comments Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, NAO, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Winter Storm