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In Position To Challenge The All-Time Record Low For May Saturday; Discussing Degree Of Moderation Late Month…

We may only be a few weeks away from meteorological summer, but you wouldn’t know it. Instead, we’re talking about the potential of wet snow mixing in with a cold rain to close the work week and threat of lows falling into the 20s Saturday morning!

A strong cold front will settle south across the Ohio Valley Friday morning. In response to the front moving south, surface low pressure will organize along the boundary across the TN Valley Friday morning before roaring northeast and off the New England coast Saturday morning.

Widespread light rain will overspread the southern half of the state during the wee morning hours Friday, continuing into the mid to late morning before pushing off to the east. This will be a cold rain and may even mix with wet snowflakes at times before ending.

This won’t be a huge precipitation producer across central Indiana with most checking in between 0.10″ and 0.25″ (heavier amounts expected across southern Indiana).

Temperatures will slowly fall through the 40s during the daytime Friday. (Yes, we’re talking about May 8th)!

That then sets us up to at least be in position to break the all-time record low for the month of May (28° set in 1966). This will be an airmass with arctic origins and if high pressure can clear us out in time Friday night, overnight lows by Saturday morning are likely to fall into the upper 20s. High resolution guidance takes IND to between 26° and 27° while the European data remains consistent at 28°. Regardless, this will be “rare air” for so late in the season. Those with ag interests should use today to prepare for a hard freeze Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looking ahead, the bulk of the upcoming 7-day period will remain much cooler than average, but there are at least hints of a potential pattern change during the 8-10 day period. The European data is much warmer than the GEFS or new JMA Weeklies that are in-house. Additionally, the teleconnections don’t scream an all-out pattern change. Regardless, a period of moderation would certainly be welcome after this unusually chilly spell. We’ll have much more on this later today with our long range video update. Stay tuned.

No Comments AG Report, Arctic Cold, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Record Cold, Record Weather, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. A cold front will settle south into a warm and at least marginally unstable environment tonight into early Sunday morning. This will result in a rather rapid expansion of thunderstorms across the central Ohio Valley tonight.

II. The next big item has to do with the unseasonably cold airmass that will unload into the eastern half of the country, but this is more of a late Week 1 into Week 2 situation.

Unseasonably dry conditions will continue to allow the Deep South to dry out over the upcoming week. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region also should run drier than normal.

Across immediate central Indiana, we’re targeting the upcoming 7-day period to produce between 1.5” and 2” of rain and most of that will fall tonight-early Sunday morning.
A highly amplified pattern will emerge late in the forecast period resulting in the overall 7-day period tilting towards a cooler than average one. Even colder air is scheduled next weekend into Week 2.
The best chance of a few strong to severe storms will take place late tonight into early Sunday morning as a cold front settles south into a briefly warmer/ unstable air mass.

Forecast Period: 05.02.20 through 05.09.20

Most of our Saturday will feature dry and pleasant conditions. It’ll be a great day to get caught up on yard work around the house before things take on a stormy turn tonight. A cold front will settle into the briefly warmer and more humid air mass and will ignite thunderstorm development by late evening. A few of these storms will likely become strong to severe late evening into the overnight period, including the potential of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Once the front settles to our south, the convection will also move south and out of our area mid-late Sunday morning. Beforehand, a swath of 1” rains are likely throughout central Indiana with a few locally heavier totals.

There will then be a couple of additional cold fronts to track through the upcoming week: Monday night into Tuesday and again Friday into Saturday. Both fronts should provide additional rain chances during that time frame followed by cooler air.

It’s the weekend front that will usher in more of a winter-like feel including the threat of late season frost/ freeze conditions during the 7-10 day period. We may have not even seen the last of snow for the season…

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