Category: Client

Jan 31

Snowy Thursday Night-Early Friday Morning On Tap…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

Forecaster: McMillan


What: Accumulating snow

When: This evening into the predawn hours Friday

Temperatures: 15 to 18 F

Wind: ESE 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ drifting: Minimal

Attention will shift from the dangerous cold to an accumulating snow event across central and north-central Indiana this evening into the predawn hours Friday. We expect snow to begin reaching the surface (may take a little longer than models suggest due to the dry air in place initially) in western portions of the viewing area between 6p-7p and into central Indiana between 8p and 9p. Heaviest snow still looks to fall during the hours of 10p and 3a. Banding may result in periods of moderate to heavy snow during this time frame. Light snow will be ongoing across southeast Indiana around 7a Friday before departing the state shortly thereafter.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 6:30p Thursday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-thursday-night-early-friday-morning-on-tap/

Jan 24

Launch of IndyWx.com All-Access…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/launch-of-indywx-com-all-access/

Jan 04

Trying to Answer Questions When Winter Will Show Up…

Daily, we’re receiving questions around if and when winter will show up. While admittedly later than originally thought here, we’ve never been in the camp of “throwing the towel” in on winter. Our winter outlook that includes below normal cold and near average snowfall remains unchanged.

Before we get into some of our reasons why we think winter will show up (and likely make up for lost time), the upcoming week will remain much warmer than average.

We’re tracking (3) storm systems that will deal the region rain over the upcoming week:

  1. Southern IN this afternoon and evening
  2. All of the state Monday
  3. All of the state next Friday into Saturday

As a whole, rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive for most, with 7-day totals between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for central portions of the state. Heavier amounts can be expected across southern areas.

Now, let’s look ahead to some potentially colder times. Before moving forward, it’s important that we recognize models have attempted once already to drive in a wholesale pattern change to colder (originally thought to be underway now). Perhaps it’s a case of “delayed, but not denied.” There’s a lot going on behind the scenes:

  • Sudden stratospheric warming event and potential polar vortex displacement, etc.
  • SOI flipping from a Niña-like state to one we’d expect to see associated with an El Niño
  • Active MJO remains

There are significant changes brewing in the arctic/ higher latitudes that have to raise an eyebrow at the very least.

Today

Mid-January

Note the higher pressures building over the upcoming 10-14 days in the arctic regions.

Not surprisingly, the models begin to tank the AO.

The PNA rises…

Something that also lends credence to a potential pattern shift is the recent SOI drop.

This would tend to suggest that an active storm track may be in place as the more bonafide cold shift is underway.

The moral of the story? Despite the milder period being extended a couple weeks longer than originally thought, there’s still a lot on the table this winter. It’s far too early to think winter’s over before it’s really even begun for most. We expect to see increasingly wintry conditions show up around the middle of January…

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/trying-to-answer-questions-when-winter-will-show-up/

Jul 16

Medium Range Notes: Cooler, More Active Times Dominate…

As part of some exciting and significant enhancements that we’re looking forward to announcing later this fall, we’re going to be including more content that’s typically only been going out to private clients.  Some of that content includes our ‘medium range notes’ that go out each evening, included in the sample below.

As we look at the medium range period, or the 6-10 day time frame, the pattern flip to a cooler and more active regime is clear.  Both the respective GFS and European ensemble members (below) see the significant changes that will be with us as we put a wrap on July and look ahead to welcoming August.  Note the upper ridge retrograding west.

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Not only will this help drive a significantly cooler pattern, but a wetter one to boot.  We note data reflecting wetter than average times returning for the upper Mid West, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley during the upcoming 6-10 day period.  It appears as if much-needed moisture will be returning to central Indiana.

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Also note the dramatic flip to cooler times.

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Storms Of Significance:

Of note during the period, we’re targeting a storm system that will likely deliver unsettled weather to central Indiana over the upcoming weekend, continuing into the Days 6-7 time period.  This is followed by another storm system that will deliver unsettled conditions Days 9-10, including reinforcing cooler than average temperatures.

As always, IndyWx.com features daily blog and video updates that include details around the short-term period.

Forecaster: BM

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/medium-range-notes-cooler-more-active-times-dominate/

Apr 23

Turning Significantly Warmer Towards The End Of The 10-Day Period…

The upcoming 10-days will run cooler than normal, overall, but it’s the cool on the front end that will be most noticeable before a nice warming trend develops towards the weekend and into early parts of Week 2.

After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.

Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period.  Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.

The majority of the Ohio Valley will run drier than normal through the period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/turning-significantly-warmer-towards-the-end-of-the-10-day-period/