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Jun 11

Unseasonably Cool; Talking Rain Chances Into Early Next Week…

We’re enjoying unseasonably cool and refreshing air this morning (to the tune of 10-15 degrees below average across central Indiana). The extent of the refreshingly cool air is impressive- spanning all the way into northern TX and parts of OK this morning!

A gorgeous day is on tap with plentiful sunshine and low humidity. Unfortunately, rain still appears to return to the picture on Wednesday. Scattered showers will be most numerous Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Thursday morning. Rainfall should average between 0.10″ to 0.25″ for most central Indiana rain gauges with a few heavier totals across eastern areas.

The cold front and upper level energy associated for delivering the Wednesday rain will swing through here early Thursday, resulting in a gusty northwesterly wind and fall-like air through the day. Highs will only top out in the mid-upper 60s and lows Friday morning will fall into the upper 40s.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather to close the work week, but as we’ve grown all too accustomed to over the past couple of months, we don’t expect prolonged dry time. Instead, our weather will turn unsettled yet again over the weekend into early next week. With a moist southwesterly air flow returning, periods of locally heavy rain can be expected in this setup.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-cool-talking-rain-chances-into-early-next-week/

Jun 10

Cool Now, But What About Late-June?

Unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, weather will dominate our area this week, but what awaits as we move into the latter part of June?

We continue to see a highly amplified MJO and it’s forecast to swing into Phases 4-5 in the coming weeks.

Neither of these phases argues for any sort of significant or long-lasting warmth anytime over the next few weeks across our immediate region.

To no surprise, the latest long range data continues to indicate an overall seasonable to cooler than average theme to close out the month of June. The European ensemble agrees.

What about precipitation as we progress through the last couple weeks of the month? Phase 4 remains wet before things take on a drier theme during Phase 5. (It’s important to note though that if the MJO continues the overall high amplitude, unfortunately we would head into the wetter Phases 6-7 as we head towards the mid way point of summer).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cool-now-but-what-about-late-june/

Jun 10

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 06.10.19 through 06.17.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run above average through the period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run well below average through the period.


Severe Outlook: Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period. With that said, we’ll keep an eye on the potential of a couple gusty storms Wednesday as vigorous upper level energy and an associated cold front blow through the state.

Summary: After a wet close to the weekend, drier air will return today and Tuesday, along with increasing sunshine from west to east by this afternoon. Our next system of note arrives Wednesday in the form of a cold front. This will serve to reinforce the unseasonably cool air in place across the region for late week, but also may provide a few gusty storms as it moves through the area. Shower coverage will be scattered to widespread Wednesday. Another system will approach over the weekend with unsettled conditions expected both Saturday and Sunday.

While temperatures will run below normal throughout the period, the coolest day of the week appears to be Thursday with highs only in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-2/

Jun 09

Localized Bands Of Flooding Rain Possible This Afternoon-Evening…

An upper level low will have control of our weather today. We’re seeing widespread mostly light rain this morning and that will begin to diminish as we move into the late morning and early afternoon.

We’ll then likely see a few breaks in the cloud cover and that will serve to provide just enough energy to help showers and thunderstorms redevelop by mid to late afternoon. With a juicy air mass in place (precipitable water values will exceed 2″ in spots), locally heavy rain is likely.

With weak steering flows in place this afternoon and evening, the concern we have is that localized bands of this heavy rain/ embedded thunder will “train” over the same areas, potentially leading to flash flooding in localized spots across central Indiana.

We expect these south-to-north moving bands of rain to begin to organize towards the 4p to 6p time frame, continuing into the evening and nighttime hours. Where the heavier rain bands organize, a quick 2″ to 3″ of rain is likely this evening.

More around the #AGwx report for the upcoming week will be posted later this morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/localized-bands-of-flooding-rain-possible-this-afternoon-evening/

Jun 08

Rain Coverage Increases Over The Weekend; Blast Of Fall-Like Air Next Week…

Upper level energy will get pulled north into the Ohio Valley region over the weekend. This will result in an increase in cloudiness and better coverage of showers at times this afternoon through

As we time things out, light showers will move northwest (opposite of the usual direction) across the region beginning this afternoon, but more concentrated heavier downpours are a good bet tonight into Sunday morning.

Forecast radar 5a Sunday shows widespread rain across central Indiana.

We’ll likely get into some drier conditions Sunday afternoon, but redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely by evening.

Forecast radar 7p Sunday shows scattered thunderstorms in place.

While there will be plenty of dry time this weekend, do expect periods of wet weather at times. Everyone won’t see heavy rain (0.5″ to 1″ on average for weekend totals), but with this kind of system, there will likely be heavier bands of rain over the next couple of days. High resolution guidance is likely picking up on this, understanding it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint with certainty where those heavier rain bands set up.

Drier air will arrive on the scene early in the work week with increasing sunshine anticipated Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will run well below average for midweek with reinforcing unseasonably cool air blowing into town to wrap up the work week (40s still a good bet with highs only in the 60s).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-coverage-increases-over-the-weekend-blast-of-fall-like-air-next-week/