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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-summer-like-feel-develops-talking-storm-chances-in-the-days-ahead/
May 13
“Transition” Is The Name Of The Game…
As we look ahead to late-May and early June, “transition” is the word that comes to mind when describing the overall weather pattern.
We’re going to begin pulling out of this unseasonably chilly pattern late-week and we’ll replace it with a true summer-like regime. Note the differences at 500mb between now and this weekend:
Not only will the 80s return, but oppressive dew points can be expected as well by Friday (65-70 degrees). The sweat factor will be back in full effect!
With that said, there’s reason for concern that the flip to summer may not last.
Not only do we continue to see high-latitude blocking in place, but the MJO is showing signs of rotating into Phase 1 as we inch closer to early-June. That Phase 1 this time of year is a cool one for the eastern portion of the country. Note the tendency for eastern troughiness illustrated in Image 2 below.
Perhaps ensemble data is seeing this cooler transition in the pattern on today’s 12z run:
Bottom line, confidence is high on a summer-like flip as we welcome in the weekend, continuing into early parts of Week 2, but we don’t think it’s a “stick and hold” variety of warmth. There’s growing reason to believe a flip back to cooler conditions looms before we close out the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/transition-is-the-name-of-the-game/
May 13
VIDEO: Pattern Transition Takes Place Late Week; Early Thoughts On The Indy 500 & Memorial Day Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-pattern-transition-takes-place-late-week-early-thoughts-on-the-indy-500-memorial-day-weekend/
May 12
#AGwx And Weekly Severe Weather Outlook…
Forecast Period: 05.12.19 through 05.19.19
7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run below average through the period.
7-Day Temperatures: A period of transition awaits during the week. While we’ll start significantly cooler than normal, a major warming trend will take hold late in the period. Overall, the 7-day period will run very close to average, but we get there through unseasonably chilly air giving way to a summer-like feel late in the week.
Severe Weather: A quiet period awaits from a severe perspective.
Summary: While we’ll have to deal with a couple of weak and moisture-starved systems this week, overall, we’re looking at a much quieter time of things compared to recent weeks past. Nuisance variety showers will remain today and Monday, but most rain gauges will pick up a tenth of an inch or less. Another system will deliver light showers Wednesday. Perhaps a “more exciting” system will arrive Thursday night-Friday with thunderstorms. This will come on the nose of the much warmer and more humid air surging north into the Ohio Valley. Next weekend will feel like summer around central Indiana…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/agwx-and-weekly-severe-weather-outlook-3/
May 11
VIDEO: Cool And Damp Conditions Build In; Improvements On Deck Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-cool-and-damp-conditions-build-in-improvements-on-deck-next-week/