Category: Client

Looking Ahead To The 2nd Half Of September…

A gorgeous mid September day awaits, with plentiful sunshine and unseasonable warmth. A cold front sits off to our northwest. Meanwhile, a disturbed area of weather in the Bahamas will be monitored for the potential of further development late week into next week as it eventually moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

We’ll remain quiet across central Indiana today, but notice a flare up of thunderstorm activity across northern parts of the state tonight. Some of this shower and thunderstorm activity will drift south into central Indiana early Wednesday, but “widely scattered” will be the appropriate word to describe the coverage and many won’t see a drop of rain.

Scattered storms will fire up across northern IN tonight. (Forecast radar midnight Wednesday).

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Thursday into Friday before a cold front sweeps through the area. This front will lead to lower humidity as we head into the weekend, but temperatures will remain above average. While some will make it through the rest of the week without seeing a drop of rain, others may pick up 0.25″ to 0.50″ with those scattered downpours.

As we look ahead to the 2nd half of September, a warmer to much warmer than average pattern is anticipated to continue. A big reason behind the warmth is the predominantly positive EPO.

A true blow torch of a pattern will result into the late month stretch. Eventually, we should see a pull back of the heights into the NW and western Canada and more of an eastern trough showing up in the means, but this isn’t likely to take place until the last couple of days of this month or early October. Until then, expect an overall summer-like feel.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-to-the-2nd-half-of-september/

A Teleconnection Tale…

Before we display the mean upper level pattern ahead over the next couple weeks, let’s look at some of the various teleconnections to gain some insight behind what’s driving the overall pattern.

EPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

WPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

MJO- heading into Phase 6 with a look like it wants to rumble into Phase 7. This is a warm signal this time of year.

With the warm signals above, it should come as no surprise of the next couple weeks offering up a predominant eastern ridge.

Days 6-10

Days 10-14

While a couple of weak cold fronts may lead to somewhat cooler air briefly, the balance of the next couple of weeks looks to offer up much more in the way of summer-like heat and well above normal warmth. It should also be noted that the overall pattern looks like a dry one over the next 10-14 days, as well.

Don’t put away that swim suit just yet!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-teleconnection-tale/

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 09.08.19 through 09.15.19

7-Day Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to run below normal through the forecast period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures will run well above average through the forecast period above.

Severe Weather Outlook: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the period.

Summary: After an unseasonably cool open to meteorological fall, summer-like heat will fight back over the upcoming week. Several days of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected with unseasonably warm overnight lows around 70° by the middle part of the week and beyond. From a precipitation perspective, best chances of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive by the 2nd half of the work week, but coverage will remain scattered. As a whole, we’re expecting the upcoming forecast period to only result in 0.25” to 0.75” of precipitation.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-outlook/

VIDEO: Great Start To The Weekend Before Showers Return Sunday; Summer-Like Heat Blows Into Town Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-great-start-to-the-weekend-before-showers-return-sunday-summer-like-heat-blows-into-town-next-week/

Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…

After an unseasonably cool weekend, significant late season heat will return next week.

Note the ridge expand over the eastern portion of the country next week.

To no surprise, the EPO pops positive and this really helps drive the warm mid-September pattern.

Positive EPOs in September favor warmth from the OHV, Mid Atl and into the Northeast.

The question then becomes “how long does the late season heat last?” As the EPO trends negative, cooler times would be favored as we move into late September. We’ll keep a close eye on things.

For now, those not ready to say goodbye to summer will be in luck next week with highs around 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s…

A few opportunities (today and Sunday) for showers can be expected over the next few days, but these won’t amount to much and some may not see any rain of significance. Better rain and storm chances will return the middle of next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/summer-isnt-finished-yet/