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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/video-sunday-storm-threat-latest-on-dorian-and-looking-ahead-to-a-cool-shift-next-week/
Aug 30
Widely Scattered Light Showers Through Labor Day Weekend; Tracking A Strong Cold Front Late Next Week…
A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.
Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.
We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.
Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.
The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.
Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).
The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.
Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…
Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.
Enjoy your Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/widely-scattered-light-showers-through-labor-day-weekend-tracking-a-strong-cold-front-late-next-week/
Aug 29
VIDEO: Latest Thoughts Into The 1st Month Of Meteorological Fall…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/29/video-latest-thoughts-into-the-1st-month-of-meteorological-fall/
Aug 28
Gorgeous Midweek Weather; All Eyes On Dorian As We Move Through Labor Day Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/28/gorgeous-midweek-weather-all-eyes-on-dorian-as-we-move-through-labor-day-weekend/
Aug 27
VIDEO: Another Early Fall-Like Airmass Builds In…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/27/video-another-early-fall-like-airmass-builds-in/
Aug 27
Pattern Progression Into Early September…
The short-term period will be dominated by a cooler than normal theme as we put the final touches on August and open September.
This will only serve to push those already below normal for the month even cooler than average and turn a lot of the area bordering these cool anomalies “over the top” from seasonal to slightly cooler than normal by month’s end. Meanwhile, warmth will continue to dominate along the coasts
Here’s a look at month-to-date temperature anomalies, compared to our initial August forecast (issued July 21st).
The negative EPO suggests any sort of warmth will be hard to come by and transitional through the 1st 1/3 of the month.
After a wet time of things as of late, we’ll dry things out the middle part of the week. A couple of moisture-starved and rather weak systems may lead to scattered showers Friday and again at times over the holiday weekend, but significant rain isn’t anticipated. We would agree with the drier than average theme displayed from the most recent CFSv2 Weekly product to open September:
The one potential “fly in the ointment” to the dry open to September would be whatever comes from current Tropical Storm Dorian (moving through the Windward Islands as of this update). There’s relatively good model agreement that Dorian will move northwest and eventually be in a position to impact the eastern Florida coastline by the Labor Day weekend as a Tropical Storm.
It’s far too early to speculate from this point, but the pattern may promote Dorian to then track into the Gulf of Mexico. While unlikely Dorian’s remnant moisture ever impacts our immediate region, this will be something that we’ll keep an eye on over the next week to 10 days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/27/pattern-progression-into-early-september/
Aug 26
Evening Video Update: Locally Heavy Rain Moves In Overnight For Some; Cool Pattern Sets Up Shop…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/26/evening-video-update-locally-heavy-rain-moves-in-overnight-for-some-cool-pattern-sets-up-shop/
Aug 26
VIDEO: Wet Open To The Work Week; Early September Thoughts…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/26/video-wet-open-to-the-work-week-early-september-thoughts/
Aug 25
Sunday Morning Rambles…
I. The dry air we’ve enjoyed the past couple of days will be replaced with an increasingly moist air mass to open the work week.
II. With that will come an increase in cloud cover later today and the possibility of a couple of showers. Better coverage of showers and embedded thunder will return Monday into Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts of 0.25” to 0.75” can be expected during this time period with some neighborhoods accumulating close to an inch.
III. A cold front will sweep across the Ohio Valley for midweek leading to a return of dry and unseasonably cool conditions. This will be followed by a second frontal passage Labor Day weekend that will serve to reinforce the cooler than normal air.
Will have a more detailed post, including longer range thoughts later this evening, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/25/sunday-morning-rambles-5/
Aug 23
The Shift Begins…
Every year is a bit different, but typically at some point between late August and early September we get that 1st cold frontal passage that serves as a reminder a new season is upon us. This year, that frontal passage is today.
As the front continues to sink south, we’ll notice increasingly dry air building in to close the work week. Dew points will fall into the 50s by this afternoon.
Cooler air will accommodate the drier air mass. Lows across central Indiana will fall into the lower and middle 50s (not totally out of the question a few communities fall into the 40s) both Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Dry conditions will prevail today and Saturday, and most of Sunday, too, for that matter. Our next storm system will lead to an increase in cloudiness Sunday PM and a couple of showers could follow. More widespread rain is anticipated to arrive Monday into Tuesday, and could be accompanied by a few storms. Early indications would suggest we’re looking at 0.50″ to 1″ with this system.
This will be ahead of a stronger trough that will serve to reinforce the unseasonably cool air as we head into the Labor Day weekend. If you’re a fan of this weekend, you’ll absolutely love what’s on tap next weekend (shave off a few more degrees both for lows and highs)!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/23/the-shift-begins/