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Sep 17

MJO/ EPO Telling Of Where The Pattern Is Heading To Close September & Open October?

The short-term period will continue to be dominated by unseasonably warm and dry weather. While we’ll notice a drier air mass (lower humidity) in place the next couple of days, temperatures will remain much warmer than where we should be in mid to late September.

As we close out the month and head into early October, there’s opportunity for a cooler change and we can look to the MJO and EPO for these clues.

Let’s start with the EPO. The GEFS has been leading the way on the negative transition late September for some time now. The EPS is now trending more strongly negative as of the past couple of days. This argues for a cooler than normal period of weather as we put a bow on September and open October.

(The strongly positive EPO will promote more well above normal warmth in the short to medium term period).

The MJO is becoming more amplified and the result is that we can add another “tool to the belt” moving forward in determining the overall direction of the longer range pattern.


Phase 8 argues for widespread warmth, but as we transition from Phase 1 into Phase 2 (easy to see that’s where the MJO wants to head), cooler air swings into the East/ South.

That transition may also result in needed moisture. Note the wetter period that develops during the movement from Phase 1-2.

Speaking of moisture, Sunday appears to offer up the best chance of widespread, organized rain/ storms we’ve seen month-to-date. Models are keying in on the potential of 0.50″ to 1″ (fingers crossed) as a cold front moves into the region.

The CFSv2 is following the plan outlined above- transitioning towards a wetter and eventually cooler pattern Weeks 2-3.

Sept. 17th-27th temperature anomalies
Sept. 27th-Oct. 7th temperature anomalies
Sept 17th-27th precipitation anomalies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/17/mjo-epo-telling-of-where-the-pattern-is-heading-to-close-september-open-october/

Sep 16

VIDEO: Week Ahead Outlook; Reviewing The New JAMSTEC Winter Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/16/video-week-ahead-outlook-reviewing-the-new-jamstec-winter-update/

Sep 15

VIDEO: Generally Quiet Pattern This Week; Late Month Thoughts…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/15/video-generally-quiet-pattern-this-week-late-month-thoughts/

Sep 14

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.15.19 through 09.21.19

7-Day Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to run below normal through the forecast period.

7-Day Temperatures: The upcoming forecast period above will feature well above average temperatures.

Severe Outlook: Widespread and organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period.

Summary: A couple of storm complexes will “flirt” with central Indiana as we open up the new week, but these should be in a weakening state (if not flat-out diminish entirely) as they grow closer to our immediate region. Other than that, dry and warm/ hot weather is expected until late week. Things look increasingly unsettled with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms during this time. We’re still only looking at scattered coverage with any one particular rain gauge expected to accumulate less than half an inch by late next weekend.

*Next week’s AG/ Severe Weather Update will incorporate frost/ freeze outlooks, as well as drought discussion(s) across the Lower 48.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/14/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-6/

Sep 13

Interesting Test Case In Front Of Us: Euro Vs. Everyone Else…

As we look ahead to late September, there’s a battle beginning to take place in model land. When we pull back the curtain, we note the GEFS and EPS handle the evolution of the EPO in two totally different manners in the Week 2 time period.

The GEFS begins to tank the EPO, suggesting cooler times are ahead to close September.
The EPS maintains a positive EPO and associated much warmer pattern to close September.

Our stand on the evolution of the pattern remains unchanged: that much cooler times will return as we get set to wrap up the month and head into early October. Updated data, aside from the European, suggests we’re on the right track with that train of thought.

JMA Weeklies- Week 2

CFSv2- Week 2

GEFS- Week 2

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/13/interesting-test-case-in-front-of-us-euro-vs-everyone-else/

Sep 12

Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…

A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.

A couple of storms may fire up ahead of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but widespread rain isn’t expected.
We’ll notice a wind shift from the southwest to west behind the frontal boundary Friday evening.

While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.

As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.

Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…

That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.

As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/12/thursday-morning-rambles-warmth-continues-to-dominate-over-the-next-10-days/

Sep 11

Research Continues For The Upcoming Winter…

While still a little over a month from the release of our official annual Winter Outlook, we’re deep in research mode. This morning, we wanted to provide you with some updated model data, just for fun- all centered on meteorological winter (Dec. through Feb.).

UKMET- warm look with a stout southeast ridge in place.

European seasonal- warm look for the east though one could argue this would feature a warm start/ cold finish scenario (perhaps partly due to the warm SSTs in the eastern Atlantic).

Canadian seasonal- not only a cold look, but quite stormy as well. Plenty of high latitude blocking would force arctic air southeast into our portion of the country with an active storm track.

CFSv2- this would be a warm winter for the majority of the country as widespread ridging dominates.

The SST configuration remains an intriguing one. Despite the majority of data above in the warm camp as of now for the upcoming winter, this is the type setup that would likely force a predominant central/ eastern trough for the bulk of winter. The two areas we’re most focused on at this point? The central PAC and northeast PAC. Warmth across the north with cooling beginning to take place east (relative, of course, to the sea surface temperatures in the central PAC) strongly argues for cold to set up shop across the central and into the east. Let’s keep an eye on this over the next 4-6 weeks to see what, if any, changes take place. Should things remain relatively unchanged across the Pacific, we’ll likely see seasonal data begin to trend colder and colder for the upcoming winter.

(Our official detailed Winter Outlook with temperature and snowfall forecasts across the country will be out in mid to late October).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/11/research-continues-for-the-upcoming-winter/

Sep 10

Looking Ahead To The 2nd Half Of September…

A gorgeous mid September day awaits, with plentiful sunshine and unseasonable warmth. A cold front sits off to our northwest. Meanwhile, a disturbed area of weather in the Bahamas will be monitored for the potential of further development late week into next week as it eventually moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

We’ll remain quiet across central Indiana today, but notice a flare up of thunderstorm activity across northern parts of the state tonight. Some of this shower and thunderstorm activity will drift south into central Indiana early Wednesday, but “widely scattered” will be the appropriate word to describe the coverage and many won’t see a drop of rain.

Scattered storms will fire up across northern IN tonight. (Forecast radar midnight Wednesday).

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Thursday into Friday before a cold front sweeps through the area. This front will lead to lower humidity as we head into the weekend, but temperatures will remain above average. While some will make it through the rest of the week without seeing a drop of rain, others may pick up 0.25″ to 0.50″ with those scattered downpours.

As we look ahead to the 2nd half of September, a warmer to much warmer than average pattern is anticipated to continue. A big reason behind the warmth is the predominantly positive EPO.

A true blow torch of a pattern will result into the late month stretch. Eventually, we should see a pull back of the heights into the NW and western Canada and more of an eastern trough showing up in the means, but this isn’t likely to take place until the last couple of days of this month or early October. Until then, expect an overall summer-like feel.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/10/looking-ahead-to-the-2nd-half-of-september/

Sep 09

A Teleconnection Tale…

Before we display the mean upper level pattern ahead over the next couple weeks, let’s look at some of the various teleconnections to gain some insight behind what’s driving the overall pattern.

EPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

WPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).

MJO- heading into Phase 6 with a look like it wants to rumble into Phase 7. This is a warm signal this time of year.

With the warm signals above, it should come as no surprise of the next couple weeks offering up a predominant eastern ridge.

Days 6-10

Days 10-14

While a couple of weak cold fronts may lead to somewhat cooler air briefly, the balance of the next couple of weeks looks to offer up much more in the way of summer-like heat and well above normal warmth. It should also be noted that the overall pattern looks like a dry one over the next 10-14 days, as well.

Don’t put away that swim suit just yet!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/09/a-teleconnection-tale/

Sep 08

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 09.08.19 through 09.15.19

7-Day Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to run below normal through the forecast period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures will run well above average through the forecast period above.

Severe Weather Outlook: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the period.

Summary: After an unseasonably cool open to meteorological fall, summer-like heat will fight back over the upcoming week. Several days of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected with unseasonably warm overnight lows around 70° by the middle part of the week and beyond. From a precipitation perspective, best chances of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive by the 2nd half of the work week, but coverage will remain scattered. As a whole, we’re expecting the upcoming forecast period to only result in 0.25” to 0.75” of precipitation.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/08/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-outlook/

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